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Slow Vaccine Rollout Hurts Accor in Northern Europe, but Strong Summer Rebound Expected

Dan Wasiolek Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Dan Wasiolek |

Narrow-moat Accor continues to be battered by ongoing COVID-19 headwinds in the first quarter of 2021, posting EUR 361 million in revenue, down 48% like for like from 2020 and down 57% from 2019. While management expressed optimism for improvement starting mid-summer through the second half of the year, we may trim our 2021 revenue per available room (revPAR) forecast from 68% of 2019 levels to closer to 60% to account for the slow vaccine rollout and proliferation of the U.K. variant in Europe, with outyear estimates largely unchanged. We don’t expect much change to our EUR 35 fair value estimate, as lower near-term demand forecasts are offset by the time value of money, and view the company as fairly valued.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Accor operates 753,000 rooms across over 30 brands addressing the economy through luxury segments, as of Dec. 31, 2020. Ibis (economy scale) is the largest brand (38% of total rooms at the end of 2020), followed by Novotel (14%) and Mercure (15%). FRHI offers additional luxury and North American exposure. After the sale of the majority of HotelInvest (owned assets) in 2018-19, the majority of total EBITDA comes from HotelServices (asset-light). Europe represents 46% of rooms, Asia-Pacific region 32%, Americas 13%, and the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa 9%. Economy and midscale are 74% of rooms.

82, Rue Henri Farman, Tour Sequana, Issy-les-Moulineaux
Paris, 92130, France
T +33 145388600
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Lodging
Most Recent Earnings
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 191,773

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