Analyst Note| Dan Wasiolek |
As the pandemic continues to affect the travel and leisure industry, Accor’s second-quarter revenue per available room declined 88% in the second quarter, trailing the preannounced 75% drop and 54% decrease for narrow-moat InterContinental and Wyndham, respectively, and below our expected decline of 68%. Accor’s underperformance was driven by low occupancy (15% in the second quarter) as COVID-19 cases spiked and borders remain closed or partially closed, especially in Europe, which represents around half of the company’s rooms. As a result, we could lower our 2020 Accor revPAR forecast toward a 50% decline from a 40% drop. We may slightly lower our EUR 34 fair value estimate.