![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/6DJft5fu8LcDh0KC6MZRpiHtJCs=/1200x675/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/GJMQNPFPOFHUHHT3UABTAMBTZM.png)
Economy
Featured
Economic Topics
Inflation
-
Markets Brief: GDP and Inflation Back in the Spotlight
-
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
-
Q3 2024: Market Insights on Stocks, Bonds, and the Economy
-
Soft Reading on Inflation Strengthens the Case for September Rate Cut
-
Are Diversified Real Asset Funds a Good Inflation Hedge?
-
June CPI Report Shows Inflation Softening at a 3% Annual Rate
-
Is High Inflation a Good Time for Roth IRA Conversions?
-
Why Inflation Is Still a Problem for Today’s Retirees
-
June CPI Forecasts Show More Progress on Inflation
Employment
-
Why We Expect the Job Market’s Slowdown to Renew in 2024
-
June Jobs Report a Potential Bearish Signal for the Economy
-
June US Jobs Report: 206,000 Rise In Payrolls, but Revisions Show Slower Growth
-
June Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Continued Healthy, but More Moderate, Hiring Gains
-
Markets Brief: US Jobs Report In View as Q3 Begins
-
Job Gains Surged Again In May, Dashing Hopes of a Sustainable Slowdown
-
May US Jobs Report: 272,000 Rise in Payrolls, Much Stronger Than Forecast
-
May Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Healthy but Moderating Hiring Gains
-
Markets Brief: Friday’s Job Report in Focus
More in Economy
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/9uDtvrOEUDEUKAtdJJzqOWk2kO0=/2401x2401/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XLSY65MOPVF3FIKU6E2FHF4GXE.png)
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/4hfBgFy4LcJwML3kPTxk53hN2XI=/2400x2400/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/HKIFRWSPJZGZRNDNXEELOFFMVM.png)
We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates
Our economic forecast is optimistic in the long run thanks to labor supply and productivity expansion.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/LU9IWhPXHlWWpSkZowFhxpoC3_c=/3601x3601/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/CBGXB44AUBHWHKWNTURURHQIHE.jpg)
Soft Reading on Inflation Strengthens the Case for September Rate Cut
June CPI report shows falling prices for gas, used cars, and airfare driving inflation lower.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/jNTFOZCccnqRCMXohiwqbZdAbvM=/2401x2401/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/VUWQI723Q5E43P5QRTRHGLJ7TI.png)
June CPI Report Shows Inflation Softening at a 3% Annual Rate
The CPI fell 0.1% in June, weaker than expected.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
June CPI Forecasts Show More Progress on Inflation
Fed seen as gaining confidence to cut rates.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
June Jobs Report a Potential Bearish Signal for the Economy
Hiring grows more than expected in June, but revisions to prior months show slowing growth.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/AIlI7eJcJi2gZ3y-Bcsiu9Aq3GQ=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/HBAEAVIJHFEBTPMEK2UMVQ3NFQ.png)
June US Jobs Report: 206,000 Rise In Payrolls, but Revisions Show Slower Growth
April and May gain in payrolls revised down, even as June rise tops expectations.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
June Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Continued Healthy, but More Moderate, Hiring Gains
Fed seen on track to cut interest rates in September.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/AIlI7eJcJi2gZ3y-Bcsiu9Aq3GQ=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/HBAEAVIJHFEBTPMEK2UMVQ3NFQ.png)
May PCE Inflation as Expected, Likely Clearing Way for Sept. Fed Rate Cut
The PCE Inflation Index is up 2.6% year-over-year.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
Forecasts for May PCE Report Show More Improvement On Inflation
With inflation news again looking better, expectations center on a Fed rate cut in September.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/HUiYnNFkUUiHM-xDUBYwAADMaWQ=/1200x1200/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/GJMQNPFPOFHUHHT3UABTAMBTZM.png)
What Is the Federal Reserve and How Does It Work?
Understand the Fed’s goals and what they mean for your investments.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/BfunkA6ftYzUUZpVcl0Ox7YMJ-U=/2000x2000/smart/filters:no_upscale()/d10o6nnig0wrdw.cloudfront.net/06-13-2024/t_5e8709159a4b4d4daed492fffd6275a8_name_file_960x540_1600_v4_.jpg)
The Fed’s Inflation Outlook Is a Little Too Pessimistic
Why we expect more than one interest rate cut in 2024.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/jNTFOZCccnqRCMXohiwqbZdAbvM=/2401x2401/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/VUWQI723Q5E43P5QRTRHGLJ7TI.png)
A Cautious Fed Eyes Just One Rate Cut In 2024
We think inflation will improve, allowing the Fed to lower rates twice this year.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/9uDtvrOEUDEUKAtdJJzqOWk2kO0=/2401x2401/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XLSY65MOPVF3FIKU6E2FHF4GXE.png)
May CPI Report: Good News on Inflation, but Hold the Champagne
Housing costs remain a sore spot, but watchers see room for the Fed to cut rates in September.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
May US CPI Report: Monthly Inflation Flat, Softer Than Expected
Core inflation is up 3.3% year over year, below the consensus forecast.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/8-AXfx3PRtimzRSJp6IZDI12ICk=/1800x1800/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/G3DCA6SF2FAR5PKHPEXOIB6CWQ.jpg)
Stock Investors Have Already Won the Election
No matter who is president, equities ride a favorable tide.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/1fuXYEsmqeYR4HylmG7L7L3o7MM=/2401x2401/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/UO27WVNBNFERJN2HBGETNU6OOA.png)
May CPI Forecasts Show Inflation Softening Overall as Gas Prices Ease
Core CPI is still seen as too sticky for the Fed to cut rates soon.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/9uDtvrOEUDEUKAtdJJzqOWk2kO0=/2401x2401/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XLSY65MOPVF3FIKU6E2FHF4GXE.png)
Why Today’s Fed Outlook May Be the Best-Case Scenario for Stock Investors
Hopes of a soft landing are alive and well, but the worst-case scenarios are also on the table.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
Job Gains Surged Again In May, Dashing Hopes of a Sustainable Slowdown
Fed cuts will more likely depend on inflation, not the job market.
![](https://morningstar-morningstar-prod.web.arc-cdn.net/resizer/12tNV0wlXa41mqsywkilGUVEcug=/4801x4801/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/XF7WENSYN5BFBFLPPFH7BJYUHE.png)
May US Jobs Report: 272,000 Rise in Payrolls, Much Stronger Than Forecast
Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%