Economy
Morningstar breaks down policies and events that impact the overall economy. Learn about relevant shifts, shocks, and developments in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Featured
Economic Topics
Inflation
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What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE Indexes?
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Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy
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Markets Brief: Will the New Inflation Story Hurt Stocks?
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What Hot Inflation and Delayed Rate Cuts Mean for Investors
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March CPI Report: Why Is Inflation Still So Sticky?
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March US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.5% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected
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Forecasts for March CPI Report Show More Mixed Signals on Inflation
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Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
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Morningstar Market Insights: Central Banks, Inflation, and Patient Investing
Employment
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Despite Strong Jobs Report, Fed Still Seen on Track to Cut Rates
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March US Jobs Report: 303,000 Rise In Payrolls, Stronger Than Expected
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March Jobs Report Forecasts Show Still-Strong but Slowing Hiring Gains
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Why We Expect the Job Market’s Slowdown to Renew in 2024
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Why the February Jobs Report Shows Solid—But Not ‘Hot’—Hiring Gains
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February U.S. Jobs Report: 275,000 Rise in Payrolls, Above Expectations
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Forecasts for February Jobs Report Show Continued Strong Growth
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Work Doesn’t Have to End When You Retire
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Strong January Jobs Report Takes March Fed Rate Cut Off the Table
More in Economy
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These 4 Charts Show Plunging Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
The hot March CPI report has bond traders significantly paring back rate cuts in 2024.
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March US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.5% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected
Core CPI rises at 3.8% annual rate.
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Markets Brief: What Fewer Rate Cuts Could Mean for Stock Valuations
Insights into key market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
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Despite Strong Jobs Report, Fed Still Seen on Track to Cut Rates
Inflation data will be key to when the Fed will lower rates.
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March US Jobs Report: 303,000 Rise In Payrolls, Stronger Than Expected
Unemployment rate edged down to 3.8%.
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Q1 2024 In Review and Q2 Market Outlook
Our analysts put the first-quarter performance trends for stock sectors, bonds, and funds into perspective—and look ahead with a fresh market outlook for the second quarter.
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When Will the Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?
Our latest economic forecast for interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth.
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Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead.
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Markets Brief: Why Q1 Was a Triumph for Optimists
Insights into important market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
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Morningstar Market Insights: Central Banks, Inflation, and Patient Investing
A look at key market and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
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Fed on Track for June Rate Cuts and More
We’re looking for deeper rate cuts than the Fed’s dot plot suggests.
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Japan Raises Interest Rates for the First Time In 17 Years
Japan’s stock market hit record highs this month. Now the cost of borrowing is in positive territory.
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Markets Brief: Why You Should Watch the Dot Plots at the Fed’s March Meeting
Will the Fed signal an interest-rate cut in June, but with fewer to follow?
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What Is the Federal Reserve and How Does It Work?
Understand the Fed’s goals and what they mean for your investments.
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February CPI Report: What Higher-Than-Expected Inflation Means for Fed Rate Cuts
This month’s report looks more concerning for inflation optimists than January’s report.
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February US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.2% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected
Core CPI at an above-forecast 3.8% annual rate.
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Why the February Jobs Report Shows Solid—But Not ‘Hot’—Hiring Gains
Fed interest rate cuts still expected for June.
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February U.S. Jobs Report: 275,000 Rise in Payrolls, Above Expectations
January’s big job gain revised down as unemployment rate increases to 3.9%.
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Lessons From the Worst Bond Market Ever
What to make of the inverted yield curve.
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How to Read a CPI Report
What investment professionals see.