Company Reports

Although the Middle East conflict is affecting demand for Accor's hotels in the United Arab Emirates (3% of rooms) near term, we expect the company to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of more than 100 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset and switching cost advantages, sources of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 16% of its total in 2025, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2026-35 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (41% of total rooms in 2025).

Accor's first-half revenue per available room, or revPAR, increased 2.2%, which included a 0.2% decrease in the second quarter. Unit and pipeline growth were up 3.2% and 11.4%, respectively, in the first six months of the year, while recurring adjusted EBITDA rose 6.5% in constant currency.

Although the Middle East conflict is affecting demand for Accor's hotels in the United Arab Emirates (3% of rooms) near term, we expect the company to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of more than 100 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset and switching cost advantages, sources of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 16% of its total in 2025, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2026-35 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (41% of total rooms in 2025).

Accor's first-quarter revenue update showed a 5.1% increase in revenue per available room. or revPAR, but growth slowed to 1.6% in March as the conflict in the Middle East had an impact on demand in the United Arab Emirates. Brand development was healthy, with room growth up 3.8%.

We expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of more than 100 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset and switching cost advantages, sources of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 16% of its total in 2025, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2026-35 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (41% of total rooms in 2025).

Accor's fourth-quarter constant currency revenue per available room, or revPAR, increased 7%, driven by 9.5% growth in its luxury and lifestyle business. For the full year, unit growth was 3.7%, and constant-currency adjusted EBITDA expanded 13%.

We expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of more than 100 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the primary source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 15% of its total in 2024, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2025-34 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (42% of total rooms in 2024).

Accor reported constant-currency revenue per available room growth of 0.8%. RevPAR growth in its luxury and lifestyle segment was 5% and outperformed the 1.1% drop in its premium, midscale, and economy segment. Net unit growth was 2.5%.

While inflation, reduced consumer sentiment, and foreign-currency movements present headwinds to near-term revenue, we expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of more than 100 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the primary source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 15% of its total in 2024, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2025-34 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (42% of total rooms in 2024).

Accor's second-quarter like-for-like revenue per available room, or revPAR, increased 4.1%, led by 5.3% and 12% increases in luxury and lifestyle segments, respectively. First-half EBITDA margins expanded to 20.1% from 18.8%.

While inflation and reduced consumer sentiment present potential near-term demand headwinds, we expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of more than 100 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the primary source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 15% of its total in 2024, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2025-34 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (42% of total rooms in 2024).

Accor reported first-quarter organic revenue growth of 8%, driven by revenue per available room, or revPAR, growth of 5%, and unit expansion of 2.7%.

While inflation and reduced consumer sentiment present near-term demand headwinds, we expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of around 90 million and increasing exposure to the luxury and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the primary source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and lifestyle rooms, which were 15% of its total in 2024, up from 13% in 2021. We estimate Accor's luxury and lifestyle 2025-34 room portfolio growth to average 5%-6% annually, reaching 20% of total units during that time. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor's total units increasing about 3% on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (42% of total rooms in 2024).

Narrow-moat Accor posted a strong fourth quarter, driving full-year 2024 total revenue per available room growth, or revPAR, of 5.7%, above our 4.6% estimate. We expect travel demand to persist in 2025, given constructive year-to-date demand commentary across the hotel peer set and supported by enduring GDP, consumption, and labor force participation rates in the US. Our 2025 revPAR growth estimate is 2.4%. Our fair value estimate is EUR 44 per share.

While inflation and reduced consumer savings present near-term demand headwinds, we expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of around 90 million and increasing exposure to the premium, luxury, and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the primary source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and premium rooms, which were 23% of its total in 2023. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor posting 3% unit growth on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (44% of total rooms in 2023).

Narrow-moat Accor reported third-quarter results in line with our expectations, with a boost from the Summer Olympics that was tempered by lagging travel in China and a slowdown in leisure demand. Our fair value estimate is EUR 43 per share.

While inflation and slow economic growth present near-term demand headwinds, we expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of around 90 million and increasing exposure to the premium, luxury, and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the primary source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and premium rooms, which were 23% of its total in 2023. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against narrow-moat Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor posting 3% unit growth on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (44% of total rooms in 2023).

We see narrow-moat Accor’s first-half results as mixed to positive. On one hand, we see signs that enduring inflation and falling savings rates could now be relatively impacting lower-income household travel. For instance, Accor’s higher-priced luxury and lifestyle, or L&L, segment saw consistent 7% revenue per available room, or revPAR, growth in both its first and second quarters. This outperformed the 4% second-quarter revPAR growth for its premium, midscale, and economy, or PME, business, which decelerated from the first quarter’s 6% increase. Also, domestic travel in China has waned under the pressure of lower economic growth. But travel remains strong in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which we think is being driven by relatively healthier economic conditions and a growing middle-income class. Additionally, corporate travel, which initially lagged the covid-19 recovery in leisure excursions, is seeing renewed strength, which we think is aided by strong corporate profits and the need for in-person meetings. In fact, Accor is seeing corporate price increases of 4%-6% for travel being booked over the next one to two years, which confirms recent surveys for business trip improvement. Also, the company highlighted a June 2024 survey from Oxford Economics that showed intent to travel this year and next remains high. Amid this outlook, Accor increased its 2024 revPAR growth to 4%-5% from 3%-4%, which compares with our 3.5% forecast. Our fair value estimate is EUR 43 per share, and we see shares are slightly undervalued.

While inflation and slow economic growth present near-term demand headwinds, we expect Accor to expand its share in the hotel industry over the next decade as a result of its solid loyalty membership of around 90 million and increasing exposure to the premium, luxury, and lifestyle segments, supporting its intangible brand asset advantage, the source of its narrow moat. Accor's growing room share is being driven by an increased presence in higher-end luxury and premium rooms, which was 23% of its total in 2023. This higher luxury presence diversifies Accor from its core economy/midscale exposure, which more directly competes against narrow-moat Airbnb and other alternative accommodations. Overall, we see Accor posting 3% unit growth on average over the next 10 years, well above the roughly 1% long-term industry rate in its core Europe and North African region (44% of total rooms in 2023).

We believe the strength of narrow-moat Accor's diversified portfolio was reflected in its first-quarter 2024 sales update. Despite lapping a tough comparison (up 57% in the same period last year), revenue per available room (revPAR) grew 8% on a like-for-like basis, driven by positive pricing and volume. Less constructively, management maintained its 3%-4% average annual revPAR and unit growth targets (2023-27), implying sequential deceleration for the remainder of the year. The full-year guidance squares with our prior 2024 revPAR forecast, which was based on our positive near-term outlook on both business travel and leisure excursions.