1-Star Price
PREMIUM
5-Star Price
PREMIUM
Economic Moat
PREMIUM
Capital Allocation
PREMIUM
We plan to lift our $75 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Airbnb by a high-single-digit percentage to account for a stronger recovery in demand, with an expectation that its 2021 bookings can surpass 2019 levels (versus our prior forecast of reaching the low 90s). Although the shares are down by the mid-30s since mid-March, we still view them as overvalued, trading around 65 times consensus 2023 EV/EBITDA (Visible Alpha).
Started in 2007, Airbnb is the world’s largest online alternative accommodation travel agency, also offering booking services for boutique hotels and experiences. Airbnb’s platform offered 5.6 million active accommodation listings in 2020. Listings from the company’s 4 million hosts are spread over 220 countries and 100,000 cities. In 2020, 53% of revenue was from the North American region, 30% from Europe/Middle East/Africa, 10% from Asia-Pacific, and 7% from Latin America. Transaction fees for online bookings account for all its revenue.
