Company Reports

Shares of leading online travel agency companies Airbnb, Booking, and Expedia have declined about 10% during the last few trading sessions on fears that wide-moat Meta's AI agent, Muse, will disintermediate the platforms.

We think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and a cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by investments in artificial intelligence and by expansion into experiences, services, hotels, and international accommodation markets over the next several years, as well as its reserve now pay later and insurance product offerings.

Airbnb's second-quarter sales were up 17%, ahead of 14%-16% guidance, with 10% room night growth accelerating from last quarter's 9%. Adjusted EBITDA was up 21%. Full-year sales growth guidance rose to at least midteens from low to midteens. Shares rose 10% during Aug. 6 after-hours trading.

At its 2026 summer release, Airbnb announced the rollout of new services like grocery delivery, airport pickups, and luggage storage. Also, the company continues to integrate AI to improve customer support, simplify the onboarding listing process, and enhance guest customization

We think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by investments in artificial intelligence and by expansion into experiences, services, and international accommodation markets over the next several years, as well as its reserve now pay later and insurance product offerings.

Airbnb's first-quarter revenue grew 18%, above its 14%-16% guidance, and an acceleration from last quarter's 12%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 24%. The company increased its 2026 sales growth outlook to low- to midteens from at least low double digits.

We think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by investments in artificial intelligence and by expansion into experiences, services, and international accommodation markets over the next several years.

Airbnb's fourth-quarter results surpassed its guidance across all key metrics. Sales accelerated from last quarter's 10% rise, growing 12% (versus a 7%-10% target), nights rose 10% (midsingle digits), and adjusted EBITDA was up 3% (flat to down). Sales growth guidance for 2026 is low double digits.

Shares of online travel agency companies were down meaningfully during Feb. 3 trading, as news of Anthropic's legal tool raised concern that many existing software and applications would eventually be displaced by artificial intelligence.

Airbnb is investing in three growth opportunities. One is expanding accommodation supply and awareness in several countries outside the US. The other two are the company's launches into experiences and hotel-like services (spa, fitness, food).

Although softer US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, we think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by artificial intelligence investment and expansion into experiences, services, and international markets over the next several years.

Airbnb's shares increased 5% on Nov. 6 after-hours trading, as third-quarter revenue rose 10% (at the high end of its 8%-10% target) and fourth-quarter sales were guided to lift by 7%-10%. EBITDA margins guidance for 2025 was raised to 35% from at least 34.5%.

Although softer US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, we think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by artificial intelligence investment and expansion into experiences, services, and international markets over the next several years.

Airbnb's sales increased 13% in the second quarter, above the high end of 9%-11% guidance. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 34% from 32.5%, despite investments in expanding the network. The firm held its 2025 margin guidance of at least 34.5% versus 36.4% in 2024.

On May 13, Airbnb entered the services and experiences markets with a redesigned app. Users can book 10 types of services to an accommodation, including chefs and spa treatments. Also, local hosts and celebrities offer distinctive experiences, like spending a day with Patrick Mahomes.

Although slowing US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, we think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by artificial intelligence investment and expansion into experiences and international markets over the next several years. Airbnb is also positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift to mobile bookings: It is a top-10 travel iPhone app in 118 countries, versus 135 for Booking and 23 for Expedia, according to App Annie as of Jan. 20.

Airbnb's first-quarter revenue increased 6%, at the high-end of its 4%-6% guidance, aided by 8% room night growth. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 2% due to prudent product development investments in international alternative accommodation markets and the experiences vertical.

Shares of our online travel coverage dropped 5%-9% on April 3 after President Donald Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with select countries facing higher tariffs.

Although waning US consumer sentiment presents a near-term headwind, we think Airbnb's global online travel agency position will strengthen over the next decade, driven by a leading alternative accommodation network (the source of its wide moat) of over 5 million hosts and cumulative 2 billion guest arrivals since its start in 2008. We think this network advantage will be supported by artificial intelligence investment and expansion into experiences and international markets over the next several years. Airbnb is also positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift to mobile bookings: It is a top-10 travel iPhone app in 118 countries, versus 135 for Booking and 23 for Expedia, according to App Annie as of Jan. 20.

We have upgraded our moat rating for Airbnb to wide from narrow, driven by a strengthening network advantage and our view that the company is well positioned for artificial intelligence. As a result, we have increased our fair value estimate to $157 per share from $140. We see the shares as undervalued.