Analyst Note| Chelsey Tam |
We maintain our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Trip.com at $39 per ADS. We have made no change to our forecasts, which are below FactSet consensus as of May 19, because the road to containing COVID-19 and its variants and achieving herd immunity, which would allow global travel to recover, is likely to be bumpy and slow. The occasional scares of community spread of COVID-19 and its variants can also put a damper on domestic travel. The shares are fairly valued, in our view.