Analyst Note| Jaime M. Katz, CFA |
No-moat Norwegian has extended its pause in sailing yet again, with the namesake Norwegian brand now halted until March 1, 2021 and Regent Seven Seas and Oceania on break until April 1, 2021. We surmise this is a function of the robust steps the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is directing cruise operators to take as a result of its conditional return-to-sailing order, which will take more time to execute upon. While no-moat Carnival and no-moat Royal Caribbean have only a few ships set to sail in North America during first-quarter 2021, we expect both players to follow suit on policy domestically, leading to a later sailing start than currently expected. That said, we do believe ships will get back on the seas, evidenced by Royal’s first revenue itinerary, which left Singapore this week.