UAW Strike Raises Investor Risks
Also, why Morningstar thinks the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than projected.
Preston Caldwell
Preston Caldwell is a senior U.S. economist for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He also leads Morningstar's China macroeconomics research team. Previously, he served as a member of the energy sector team, covering oilfield services stocks and helping to craft Morningstar's long-term oil price forecasts.
Before joining Morningstar in 2016, Caldwell earned his Master of Business Administration from Rice University. Caldwell also holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Arkansas.
Latest
We Expect Faster Pace of Interest-Rate Cuts Than the Fed
Plus, the takeaway for investors as the Fed ‘proceeds carefully.’
Sep 21, 2023
Fed Signals Higher Rates for Longer, but We Expect Aggressive Cuts in 2024
Despite Powell’s hawkish tilt, we see growth slowing and inflation falling enough to merit sharply lower rates.
Sep 20, 2023
Why We Expect the Job Market to Slow in 2024
Our latest economic forecast for job growth, wage growth, and labor force participation.
Aug 31, 2023
When Will the Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?
Our latest economic forecast for interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth.
Aug 31, 2023
Fed’s Powell Talks Tough After Rate Hike, But a Pause Seen Likely From Here
We see steep Fed rate cuts coming in 2024 as inflation subsides.
Jul 27, 2023
2023 Midyear Markets Outlook
Our expectations for the economy, stocks, bonds, interest rates, and more.
Jul 18, 2023
Fed’s Powell Signals a Possible Rate Hike ‘Skip,’ Not a Pause
But with inflation likely to ease as the economy slows, we see the Fed cutting rates around the year end.
Jun 14, 2023
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2023
Wondering when inflation will go down? Help is on the way.
May 26, 2023
We Expect Economic Growth to Weaken Until Fed Pivots to Rate Cuts
But the economy should remain resilient to banking sector distress.
May 25, 2023
Fed’s Powell Hints at—but Doesn’t Commit to—a Pause After the Latest Rate Hike
We expect the Fed to lower rates in December, with massive cuts in 2024 and 2025.
May 3, 2023
What Will the Upcoming GDP Report Show About the U.S. Economy?
GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to look solid, but we expect a drop-off after that.
Apr 20, 2023
Strong March Jobs Report Shows the Fed Still Has Clearance to Hike Interest Rates
Current solid pace of hiring likely to slow sharply in 2023.
Apr 7, 2023
Fed Raises Rates, but Uncertainty Reigns Amid Banking Crisis
A tightening of bank lending could tilt the balance on the economy and future rate hikes or cuts.
Mar 22, 2023
Stronger Economic Momentum Will Induce More Rate Hikes in 2023
We remain optimistic on GDP and inflation, compared with consensus.
Mar 2, 2023
Fed Raises Rates and Says It Isn’t Done Yet. We Think It Is.
Even as the Fed says it expects “ongoing” rate hikes, we expect the next move will be to cut rates by year-end.
Feb 1, 2023
Should Investors Be Worried About the United States Debt Ceiling Crisis?
A default on United States government debt owing to the debt ceiling isn’t likely, but should one happen, here’s what the damage could look like.
Jan 25, 2023
Fed Raises Rates Again, With a Focus on Talking Tough
Powell stays hawkish on the inflation fight, but the markets are looking for a less restrictive Fed next year.
Dec 14, 2022
Economic Outlook: A Possible Turning Point in the Struggle to Tame Inflation in 2023
Despite the risk of a recession in the first half of the year, we expect economic growth to rebound sharply afterwards.
Dec 2, 2022
With Little Progress on Inflation, the Fed Presses Ahead on Inflation Fight
We continue to expect the Fed to pause its rate increases in early 2023.
Nov 2, 2022