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Ford’s First Quarter Likely As Good as It Gets for 2021 Due to Semiconductor Shortage

Sector Strategist David Whiston

David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE Sector Strategist

Analyst Note

| David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE | Apr 29, 2021

Management expects Ford’s first quarter results to be the best quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBIT including Ford Credit of $4.8 billion was a record, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.89 far surpassed the Refinitiv consensus of $0.21. We are leaving our fair value estimate of $15 unchanged. Management made no mention of resuming the dividend. It guided second quarter as having similar wholesale problems to second quarter 2020, but this time due to the semiconductor shortage. We expect the dividend to be reinstated in the second half of the year. Ford’s automotive cash of $31.3 billion should enable the company to survive a rough second quarter still in solid financial health. In second quarter 2020, Ford burned nearly $5 billion, excluding Ford Credit, so a similar horrible second quarter does not permanently impair Ford, in our view. The second half of 2021, furthermore, should see a recovery.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Ford Motor Co. manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands. The company has about 14% market share in the United States and about 7% share in Europe. Sales in North America and Europe made up 69% and 19.5% of 2020 auto revenue, respectively. Ford has about 186,000 employees, including about 58,000 UAW employees, and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Contact

One American Road
Dearborn, MI, 48126

T +1 313 322-3000

Sector Consumer Cyclical

Industry Auto Manufacturers

Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2021

Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021

Stock Type Cyclical

Employees 186,000

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