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Ford Motor Co F Stock Quote

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Morningstar‘s Ford Stock Analysis F

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Ford's Third Quarter Has Good and Bad News, but We See More Positives Than Negatives

Analyst Note

| David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE |

We see no reason to change our Ford fair value estimate after incorporating the firm’s third-quarter results into our model. Adjusted EPS of $0.30 beat the Refinitiv consensus of $0.27. Ford announced on Sept. 19 that part shortages left about 40,000 partially built vehicles in the quarter, and that it expected total company third-quarter adjusted EBIT of between $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion. It also confirmed full-year guidance for EBIT at $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion. The actual third-quarter number came in at $1.8 billion, and a $2.2 billion working capital benefit for the quarter brought automotive adjusted free cash flow to $6.6 billion year to date. Ford had been guiding for full-year free cash flow as high as $6.5 billion, so it has increased free cash guidance to $9.5 billion to $10.0 billion on anticipated strong auto results and continued strong pricing from scarce inventory. It also expects to wholesale all 40,000 unbuilt vehicles in the fourth quarter. However, a full-year commodity and inflation headwind for items such as logistics and other raw materials is now expected at $9 billion, up from $7 billion last quarter. Management is guiding for full-year adjusted EBIT of about $11.5 billion.

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Company Profile F

Business Description

Ford Motor Co. manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands. In March 2022 the company announced that it will run its combustion engine business, Ford Blue, and its BEV business, Ford Model e, as separate businesses but still all under Ford Motor Company. The company has about 12.5% market share in the United States, about 6.5% share in Europe, and about 2.4% share in China including unconsolidated affiliates. We expect market share increases as inventory improves coming out of the chip shortage. Sales in the U.S. made up about 64% of 2021 total company revenue. Ford has about 183,000 employees, including about 56,000 UAW employees, and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

One American Road
Dearborn, MI, 48126
T +1 313 322-3000
Industry Auto Manufacturers
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2022
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2022
Employees 183,000

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