Analyst Note| David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE |
We attended General Motors' Oct. 6-7 investor event and saw it as a way for management to show that GM is no longer just an automaker. Management unveiled aggressive but not impossible 2030 financial targets, including a roughly doubling of revenue including GM Financial to $275 billion-$315 billion, with about $80 billion from Cruise and new businesses. We are raising our fair value estimate to $68 per share from $62 to factor in slightly more 2025 revenue than we were modeling and higher long-term profitability metrics in Stage II of our model to account for the much higher-margin profile of these new asset-light businesses. Management also is guiding for total company EBIT margin by 2030 of 12%-14%; we have raised our midcycle 2025 EBIT margin by 50 basis points excluding equity income to 6.2%. We will continue to review our midcycle margin assumption as the company progresses through its transformative strategy.