Company Reports

Ford stock rose sharply after the automaker's second-quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.42 beat the $0.35 LSEG consensus. The firm also raised 2026 guidance to adjusted EBIT of $10 billion-$11 billion from $8.5 billion-$10.5 billion and raised free cash flow guidance.

Ford emphasizes light-truck models in the United States, which we think is the right move, since light trucks are over 80% of US industry new light-vehicle sales. Ford's challenge is to increase share profitably while elevating Lincoln into a global luxury brand, scaling electric vehicles, and containing costs such as excessive warranty spending, which it had some success with in 2025 via $1.5 billion in cost cuts, excluding tariffs. The no-moat nature of the auto industry makes these tasks very difficult, and we see headwinds from areas such as restructuring and commodities while investments in electrification take years to pay off.

Ford's second-quarter US vehicle deliveries fell 10.3% year over year, worse than the US industry's 0.5% increase. Most of the decline is from F-Series production shortages from the Novelis aluminum plant fire, now back in operation, and from discontinued models such as Escape and Corsair.

Ford is turning itself around by focusing on light-truck models in the United States, which we think is the right move, since light trucks are over 80% of US industry new light-vehicle sales. Ford's challenge is to increase share profitably while elevating Lincoln into a global luxury brand, scaling electric vehicles, and containing costs such as excessive warranty spending, which it had some success with in 2025 via $1.5 billion in cost cuts excluding tariffs. The mostly no-moat nature of the auto industry makes these tasks very difficult, and we see headwinds from areas such as restructuring and commodities while investments in electrification take years to pay off.

Ford's first-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.66 far exceeded the $0.19 LSEG consensus, partly due to cost control but also due to a $1.3 billion noncash tariff benefit from the US Supreme Court invalidating tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Ford reported an 8.8% year-over-year decline in first-quarter US deliveries. F-Series pickup sales fell 16%, including the now-discontinued F-150 Lightning down 71%. Ford said entry-level trims for the Maverick, Ranger, and Bronco Sport rose by a combined 8.4%.

Ford is turning itself around by focusing on light-truck models in the United States, which we think is the right move, since light trucks are over 80% of US industry new light-vehicle sales. Ford's challenge is to increase share profitably while elevating Lincoln into a global luxury brand, scaling electric vehicles, and containing costs such as excessive warranty spending, which it had some success with in 2025 via $1.5 billion in cost cuts excluding tariffs. The mostly no-moat nature of the auto industry makes these tasks very difficult, and we see headwinds from areas such as restructuring and commodities while investments in electrification take years to pay off.

Ford's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $0.13 missed the $0.19 LSEG consensus, but the stock rose slightly in after-hours trading after Ford provided strong 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $8 billion to $10 billion.

Ford's fourth-quarter US sales volume rose 2.7% versus a 4.2% decline in the US industry. Its fourth-quarter electric vehicle sales fell 51.9%, including a 60.1% fall from the F-150 Lightning, which ended production in 2025. Ford's full-year sales rose 6%, besting the industry's 2.4% increase.

Ford raised its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to about $7 billion on Dec. 15 and announced $19.5 billion of EV restructuring charges related to canceling three planned EVs (full-size pickup and two commercial vans) and ending a battery joint venture. Ford will also launch an energy storage business.

Ford is turning itself around by focusing on light-truck models in the United States, which we think is the right move, since light trucks are over 80% of US industry new light-vehicle sales. Ford's challenge is to increase share profitably while elevating Lincoln into a global luxury brand, scaling electric vehicles, and containing costs such as excessive warranty spending, which it had some success with in 2025. The mostly no-moat nature of the auto industry makes these tasks very difficult, and we see headwinds from areas such as restructuring, commodities, and exchange while investments in mobility and electrification take years to pay off.

Ford's third-quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.45 beat the $0.36 LSEG consensus and sent the stock up over 2% in Oct. 23 after-hours trading. The firm also provided good news on cost-reduction efforts and quantified the impact of the Novelis aluminum plant fire in Oswego, NY.

An Oct. 6 story in The Wall Street Journal of a Sept. 16 fire shutting down aluminum sheet production at an Oswego, New York, Novelis plant until first-quarter 2026 sent Ford's stock down over 7% the morning of Oct. 7. F-150 seat supplier Adient also saw its stock fall over 8%.

On Oct. 1, Ford reported third-quarter deliveries rising 8.2% year over year and said it had seven straight months of sales gains. Ford Pro commercial customers' paid subscriptions grew by 30% to about 815,000, while electric vehicles rose 30.2%.

Ford's second-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.37 fell 21.3% year over year on about $800 million of net tariff costs but beat the $0.33 LSEG consensus. Management resumed 2025 guidance after suspending it on May 5, and net tariff costs are now guided at about $2 billion, from $1.5 billion.

Ford's second-quarter US deliveries rose 14.2% year over year, far exceeding the US industry's 3% growth. The F-Series pickup had its best second quarter in six years while Lincoln's 31% increase was its best second quarter volume since 2007.

Ford's stock fell over 2% in May 5 after-hours trading after the company reported first-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.14, down 71% year over year but ahead of the $0.02 LSEG consensus. Ford also suspended all guidance due to uncertainties over tariffs and US tax and emission policies.

Ford is turning itself around by focusing on light-truck models in the United States, which we think is the right move, since light trucks are over 80% of US industry new light-vehicle sales. Ford's challenge is to increase share profitably while elevating Lincoln into a global luxury brand, scaling electric vehicles, and containing costs such as excessive warranty spending, which it had some success with in 2025. The mostly no-moat nature of the auto industry makes these tasks very difficult, and we see headwinds from areas such as restructuring, commodities, and exchange while investments in mobility and electrification take years to pay off.

The US announced a universal 10% tariff rate and rates as high as 50% on dozens of other nations but exempted automobiles and automotive parts. It also extended the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement-compliant waiver for 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts imported from Canada and Mexico.

First-quarter US auto sales to consumers and fleet customers rose 4.8% year over year, and March grew 10.7% (15% adjusting for selling days) with a seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate of 17.77 million, the best SAAR since April 2021. We think consumers pulled sales forward into March due to tariffs that start in April. We expect tariffs to really hurt sales starting around May or June once tariff-free inventory depletes from dealer lots. There are as many as four possible tariffs hitting US auto imports in April. Assuming the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in response to fentanyl and illegal immigration start April 2, even for US-Mexico-Canada Agreement-compliant vehicles, plus 25% April 3 tariffs and the normal 2.5% US tariff on foreign autos, many vehicles will have at least a 52.5% tariff on them unless President Donald Trump enacts exemptions. We don’t see a scenario where consumers avoid paying at least some of these tariffs, so we lower our 2025 US light-vehicle sales forecast range to a midpoint of 15.5 million from 16.3 million.