33 Undervalued Stocks
Here’s the new list of Morningstar’s top analyst picks for Q1 2023.
Here’s the new list of Morningstar’s top analyst picks for Q1 2023.
Stocks finished 2022 down more than 19%, as measured by the Morningstar US Market Index. Stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates, and talk of a possible economic recession rattled markets for much of the year.
Heading into 2023, stocks look downright cheap according to our metrics. The median stock in Morningstar’s North American coverage finished the year trading at a 16% discount to our fair value estimate.
“As much as we thought stocks were overvalued coming into 2022, we now see the markets as trading at a deep discount to our fair value estimate,” writes Morningstar chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekera in his latest stock market outlook.
Stocks look undervalued almost across the board:
Here’s the list of Morningstar’s top stock picks for the first quarter of 2023.
Here’s a brief summary of how valuations stack up across sectors, along with some key Morningstar metrics about each stock pick. Data is as of Dec. 30, 2022.
Basic-materials stocks outperformed the broader market in 2022. Nevertheless, Morningstar sector strategist Seth Goldstein reports that more than half the stocks that Morningstar covers in the sector are trading with Morningstar Ratings of 4 and 5 stars. While building-materials stocks remain fairly overvalued, many stocks in the agriculture and forest products industries are undervalued, as are two thirds or more of the chemicals and metals and mining stocks under our coverage.
The communication-services sector lagged the broader market in 2022, finishing the year trading 43% below our fair value estimate. Advertising uncertainty is weighing heavily on the sector, observes Morningstar sector director Mike Hodel. Opportunities abound across all subsectors: media, interactive media, and telecom. In fact, not a single communications-services stock we cover is overvalued by our metrics.
Consumer cyclical stocks underperformed the broader market last year. Coming into 2023, the sector trades at a 21% discount to our fair value estimates, with 61% of the stocks that we cover trading in 4- and 5-star range, says Morningstar sector director Erin Lash. Economic uncertainty is weighing on the sector, she adds. Apparel and travel and leisure are the most undervalued industries in the sector.
Consumer defensive stocks thrived (relatively speaking) in 2022; the median stock in the sector trades at a 2% premium to our fair value estimate coming into 2023. Yet there are opportunities to be found, says Lash. In particular, the alcoholic beverage industry trades at a 15% discount, while 40% of the consumer packaged goods stocks that we cover trade in 4- and 5-star territory.
Hain Celestial Group
Energy stocks ran circles around all other sectors in 2022, finishing the year up more than 50%. Given their outperformance during the past 12 months, energy stocks are 12% overvalued as a group, says Morningstar sector director Dave Meats. Most industries in the energy sector look overvalued, though there are some opportunities in the services and midstream segments.
Financial-services stocks outperformed the broader market last year. The average financial-services stock we cover is about 10% undervalued, reports Morningstar sector director Michael Wong. About 45% of the financial-services stocks we cover are trading below their fair values, with the most opportunities among the credit services firms and banks.
Healthcare stocks held up better than the overall market last year—which isn’t surprising, given their defensive nature. What is surprising: The average healthcare stock we cover is about 11% undervalued, reports Morningstar sector director Damien Conover. Healthcare stocks look undervalued across most industries, with more than half the stocks in the medical devices, biotechnology, and providers and services industries trading in 4- and 5-star range.
Industrials stocks outperformed the broader market during in 2022, and the sector is about fairly valued coming into the new year. Still, about half of the conglomerates and industrial products stocks are trading at 4- and 5-star levels, says Morningstar sector director Brian Bernard. Meanwhile, none of the stocks we cover in the aerospace and defense industry are undervalued.
Fortune Brands Innovations
Real estate stocks underperformed the broad market last year; the sector is now trading at a 25% discount to our fair value estimate, with more than two thirds of the names in the sector trading in either 4- or 5-star range. Rising interest rates have led to a decline in the sector’s performance despite strong fundamental growth, says Morningstar senior equity analyst Kevin Brown.
Park Hotels & Resorts
Simon Property Group
Technology stocks struggled versus the broader market in 2022, leaving the tech sector trading about 20% below our fair value estimate going into the new year, explains Morningstar sector director Brian Colello. Software stocks are the most attractive industry, about 23% undervalued. Semiconductor stocks are trading at a 12% discount to fair value, and hardware stocks are at a 15% discount.
Utilities stocks finished 2022 flat, outperforming the broader market for the year despite high inflation and rising interest rates. The sector is about 5% overvalued, argues Morningstar senior analyst Travis Miller. While most utilities stocks trade near our fair value estimates, there are a few opportunities among independent power producers and fewer standouts among regulated utilities.
Undervalued stocks are those that trade below what they’re worth. Investors can turn to several metrics to gauge a stock’s worth. Some investors use standard metrics, such as price/earnings or price/cash flow. Others may look at a stock’s price relative to a company’s future growth prospects, or where a stock is trading relative to its 52-week high price.
At Morningstar, we define undervalued stocks as those that are trading below our calculated fair value estimate, adjusted for what we call uncertainty—both of which are wrapped into the Morningstar Rating for stocks. Stocks rated 4 and 5 stars are undervalued; those rated 3 stars are fairly valued; and those rated 1 or 2 stars are overvalued. For more about how we calculate our fair value estimates, think about the Morningstar Uncertainty Rating, and more, read Morningstar’s Guide to Stock Investing.
Morningstar Investor members have access to lists of 5-star stocks and 4-star stocks and can use the Morningstar Investor screener to find undervalued stocks based on their own criteria.
Remove the guesswork and make informed decisions faster. Morningstar Investor’s stock ratings, analysis, and insights are all backed by our transparent, meticulous methodology. Learn more and start a seven-day free trial today.
Susan Dziubinski does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.