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Moderna Inc MRNA

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Maintaining Our Moderna Fair Value Estimate Following Booster FDA Committee Vote

Karen Andersen, CFA Sector Strategist

Analyst Note

| Karen Andersen, CFA |

Moderna presented data at a Food and Drug Administration advisory committee meeting on Oct. 14 supporting the use of a third-dose 50 ug booster of its COVID-19 vaccine. In Moderna's study 201B, booster recipients saw a 13-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against the original virus and 17-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against the delta variant, compared with levels achieved in a subset of patients from the key phase 3 trial after the initial series, and this response was relatively consistent across age groups. Moderna asked the FDA for authorization of its booster at least six months after the two-dose initial series in seniors (over age 65) and other high-risk populations over age 18 (due to pre-existing conditions or high-exposure settings), mirroring the groups that received FDA authorization on Sept. 22 for the Pfizer/BioNTech booster dose. The 19 voting committee members voted unanimously to authorize the Moderna booster in this setting but still appeared unconvinced when asked to consider use of mRNA vaccine boosters more broadly across the general adult population. While this appears to reflect more restricted use of a third-dose booster than our base-case scenario, we continue to expect a third dose could eventually be recommended more broadly, as supported by data from Israel and the recent broader European authorization of third-dose boosters. Therefore, we're maintaining our $159 Moderna fair value estimate, and we continue to think that Moderna is still in the process of building a moat.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its COVID-19 vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 24 mRNA development programs as of early 2021, with 13 of these in clinical trials. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.

200 Technology Square
Cambridge, MA, 02139
T +1 617 714-6500
Sector Healthcare
Industry Biotechnology
Most Recent Earnings Jun 30, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type Speculative Growth
Employees 1,300