Analyst Note| Dan Romanoff |
Wide-moat Adobe reported good third-quarter results, including revenue and non-GAAP EPS that exceeded the top end of guidance and our expectations along with it. We characterize management’s fourth-quarter guidance as in line with investor expectations, which given recent strength and with Firefly AI now generating revenue, could be interpreted as a slight disappointment. We think this mentality mainly misses the mark given such a short-term focus. Further, management will provide fiscal 2024 targets within its fourth-quarter results in December so in-line guidance for one quarter matters less to us here. To begin to accommodate recently announced price increases in the area of 10% for various Creative Cloud and single app instances, we are modestly raising our growth estimates over the next several years. Our fair value estimate therefore increases to $510, from $485 previously, although after a strong run, we see shares as fairly valued.