Business Strategy and Outlook| Jaime M. Katz, CFA |
Tractor Supply is the largest consumer farm specialty retailer in the United States, set to achieve $14 billion in sales in 2022. The firm has differentiated itself through its products and customer demographics, which provide underlying support to its brand intangible assets and narrow economic moat. At the end of 2021, the store base had grown about 26% over the prior five-year period, to more than 2,000 locations (around 2,200 including Petsense), driving sales and EPS compound annual growth rates over the past three years of 17% and 26%, respectively. We forecast that the firm will grow to around 3,000 stores by 2031 (including Petsense and 81 acquired locations from Orscheln Farm & Home) as it populates big-box centers in the western half of the U.S., with Petsense accounting for about 280 units.