Morningstar

Marvell: We See Potential for Positive Catalyst in AI Webinar

We expect management to focus on Marvell’s competitive advantages and provide more details on its customer relationships.

Signage with logo at the Silicon Valley headquarters of Marvell.
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Securities in This Article
Marvell Technology Inc
(MRVL)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Marvell Technology

Marvell Technology MRVL is hosting a webinar focusing on its custom AI accelerator (also known as XPUs) opportunity on June 17.

Why it matters: We see potential for this webinar to be an initial positive catalyst for the stock. Rumors of share loss for Marvell’s custom chip portfolio have become the key debate surrounding its valuation and have contributed to a steep depreciation in 2025.

  • We expect management to focus on why Marvell holds competitive advantages relative to less-sophisticated competitors like Alchip and GUC out of Taiwan, as well as provide more details on its customer relationships with Amazon and Microsoft, which are key to our growth forecast.
  • We expect management to update addressable market estimates and market share expectations, but we don’t expect updated revenue targets. However, an affirming of previously given artificial intelligence revenue targets could help assuage some investor concerns.

The bottom line: Our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Marvell heading into the webinar is $90 per share, leaving the stock more than 20% undervalued. Shares are down more than 35% year to date as of June 16.

  • We expect more than 40% compound annual growth for Marvell’s AI chip business over the next four years, with its custom XPUs being a significant driver. We forecast $3.5 billion in AI revenue in fiscal 2026, matching guidance for being “significantly above” the previous $2.5 billion target.

Bears say: Marvell risks losing share to the likes of Alchip for Amazon chips and the likes of Broadcom for Microsoft chips. Alchip offers a lower-cost, more consultative “back-end” offering, and Broadcom is Marvell’s larger rival in “front-end” networking and custom chip design.

  • We believe that to justify Marvell’s current share price, investors would have to assume effectively flat growth for the custom chip business after this year, implying significant share losses to Alchip and Broadcom.

Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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