Marvell Earnings: Blistering Growth

Key Morningstar Metrics for Marvell Technology

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $300.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

What We Thought of Marvell Technology’s Earnings

Marvell Technology MRVL reported good July-quarter results and raised its guidance for the next two years. Sales rose 37% year on year to $2.74 billion, and fiscal 2028 guidance went up nearly 10% to $18 billion. Management previewed further strong growth past fiscal 2028.

Why it matters: Marvell is flexing its differentiated silicon portfolio across the data center and in artificial intelligence. We like the broad-based strengthening of demand across custom chips, interconnect, and switching. The recently announced long-term agreement with Google adds further upside to long-term growth.

• We expect growth to accelerate through calendar 2028, led by rising share of custom silicon for AI customers. Marvell now holds three blue-chip custom ASIC customers in Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, and XPU attach is a meaningful contributor to growth that reflects its broad portfolio.
• Marvell is positioned well for future technology transitions, including a secular shift to customized chips for AI, higher bandwidth needs, and the proliferation of optics. It is highly leveraged to AI spending, where we see it gaining material share over the medium term.

The bottom line: We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Marvell to $300 per share from $270, behind a higher medium-term growth forecast. Despite meaningful guidance raises, the market looks unimpressed with a 6% selloff after hours. We see good value for long-term shareholders here.

• Shares have nearly tripled year to date but remain well below the June 2026 high. Even after the rise, we believe the market is overdiscounting Marvell’s long-term growth past 2028, especially with the $120 billion revenue opportunity from Google.

Coming up: We see Marvell’s Oct. 6 investor day as a potential catalyst to the stock. We expect longer-term targets through calendar 2030 and more detail on the Google ramp. There could be further upside to our model, as we don’t model in the full $120 billion from Google through 2032.