Marvell Technology Stock: Raising Valuation on Bullish Long-Term Guidance

Key Morningstar Metrics for Marvell Technology

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $360
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

Marvell Technology Stock Update

Marvell Technology MRVL unveiled bullish long-term growth guidance at its 2026 investor day, implying 58% annualized revenue growth through calendar 2030. Management expects $80 billion in revenue and $30 in non-GAAP EPS at the midpoints, versus $8.2 billion and $2.84, respectively, in calendar 2025.

Why it matters: Marvell’s base case comes in more than 50% higher on the top and bottom lines in 2030 than our bullish model coming in. It agrees with our view that artificial intelligence demand is accelerating through 2028 and durable through 2030. Still, the rate of growth blew our model out of the water.

• Marvell fully endorsed durable AI spending, calling for $3 trillion in AI capital spending in 2030 and supported by rising profitability and hyperscale cloud providers. We still see loss-making frontier labs OpenAI and Anthropic as material risks to this growth until they show they can turn a profit.
• We like Marvell’s focus on connectivity, a wide product set, and a diverse customer base. To us, it owns both depth and breadth across AI silicon infrastructure, despite being a relatively small compute player. We see management’s targets as highly credible.

The bottom line: We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Marvell to $360 per share, from $300, on higher medium-term growth targets. Our fiscal 2031 (calendar 2030) revenue and EPS have risen about 40%. Shares still look undervalued to us, even after a 7% intraday pop.

• We model to the low end of management’s target range ($70 billion in fiscal 2031 sales) and model revenue under the Google agreement falling far short of the $120 billion cumulative ceiling. In short, our valuation accounts for AI spending risk, and there’s further upside on offer.
• Investors may still feel wary of a stock that’s tripled in the last year and traded at 65 times consensus forward earnings before this event. The immense growth makes us more comfortable—-in our model, we imply Marvell being worth 23 times its fiscal 2029 earnings.