Marvell: Bullish Comments from CEO Bring Market Closer in Alignment With Our Thesis

Key Morningstar Metrics for Marvell International

• Fair Value Estimate: $90.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

Marvell Technology MRVL shares rose 7% Wednesday after management remarks at a sell-side competitor’s conference. CEO Matt Murphy reaffirmed bullishness in Marvell’s custom accelerator programs and provided a rough minimum guide of 18% revenue growth in fiscal 2027 (calendar 2026).

Why it matters: Murphy’s comments affirmed our belief that Marvell is not going to lose artificial intelligence accelerator revenue next year, amid market talk about share losses with Amazon Web Services. We expect multisourcing to continue in this market, with Marvell as a clear #2 option behind Broadcom AVGO in custom AI accelerators.

• AI is the primary driver of our growth forecast for Marvell, with accelerators as the fastest-growing piece. We expect more volumes with AWS, strong ramping volumes with Microsoft, and new projects coming online in the next three years to drive tremendous accelerator growth.
• We appreciate Marvell’s entire data center portfolio, which also includes a dominant position in optical connectivity chips. We see the firm holding a moat in both optics and accelerators, and expect AI infrastructure investments to drive attractive growth in each.

The bottom line: We maintain our $90 per share fair value estimate for Marvell, as management’s comments agreed with our thesis. Shares now look closer to fair value after trading significantly below our valuation earlier this year.

• We actually forecast 25% growth for Marvell in fiscal 2027, ahead of management’s early guidance. Management articulated 18% growth as a “floor” and indicated upside. We expect this upside to manifest, particularly once volumes ramp for the firm’s custom accelerator with Microsoft.
• Murphy also expects revenue to accelerate in fiscal 2028 and 2029 as new customers come online. Our forecast is more conservative, and we model below management’s implied $18 billion data center target in fiscal 2029. If Marvell hits its target, there’s upside to our valuation.