The Portfolio That Has Been Beating the Classic 60/40, and Why It Matters for You

Ivanna Hampton: Welcome to Investing Insights. I’m your host, Ivanna Hampton. Don’t underestimate the benefits of portfolio diversification. A well-diversified portfolio can ride waves of market volatility, and new Morningstar research found that’s what happened in 2025. When uncertainty emerged at times during the generally bullish market, the report identifies which asset classes performed well, which didn’t, and how the classic 60/40 portfolio fared. So, what are the biggest challenges for portfolio diversification today? Joining me is Amy Arnott, who was one of the co-authors of the 2026 Diversification Landscape Report. Welcome back to the podcast, Amy.

Amy Arnott: Nice to see you.

Hampton: For sure. Let’s talk about how this year’s market trends are unfolding before we dive into your team’s research. Geopolitics, rising inflation, and the interest rate outlook are weighing on investors’ minds. How are these circumstances showing up in the markets?

Arnott: As you mentioned, there’s a lot of things going on around the world with the war, rising inflation, volatility, and energy prices. But overall, the markets have actually not been more volatile than usual. If you look at volatility for the US equity market, for example, it’s actually slightly lower than the long-term average. I think that investors might see headlines and think there is a lot to worry about, and certainly, there are things to be concerned about, but the market seems to be kind of brushing that off, at least when it comes to US equities. Although we have seen more volatility than usual in a couple of places, like gold and long-term Treasuries.

Hampton: We’re recording this episode in early June. Which asset classes are leading so far in 2026?

Arnott: Yeah, I would point to commodities and emerging markets as the standouts so far this year. They’re both up about 26% or 27% so far this year. Global markets are up about 15%, and then US stocks are up about 12%, which isn’t bad for less than half a year.

Hampton: Which asset classes are lagging?

Arnott: Bitcoin has been a big laggard so far this year. Long-term Treasuries have been flat to negative, and gold has definitely had a lot of volatility so far this year, although it still has positive returns overall.

Hampton: You and your team looked at portfolio diversification, looking at data through the end of 2025. What did you all uncover?

Arnott: Gold was one of the standouts for 2025. The gold prices were actually about 70% for the year. International markets were another standout. After kind of a long period of underperformance versus US stocks, they pulled ahead by a pretty wide margin. US stocks had another pretty strong year. I would say bonds, even though a lot of investors are still kind of scarred by the double-digit losses from 2022, held up pretty well in 2024 and were able to smooth out some of the bumps during the periodic volatility for US stocks.

Hampton: You all hit two portfolios against each other. We have the classic 60/40 portfolio, which is made of 60% stocks and 40% investment-grade bonds. Can you talk about what goes into the diversified test portfolio?

Arnott: Yeah. The diversified test portfolio still has that 60/40 split overall between equities and fixed income, but it also in addition to US stocks and investment-grade bonds; it adds allocations to other areas like small-cap stocks, international stocks, high-yield bonds, gold, commodities, et cetera. It’s much more broadly diversified into a variety of asset classes.

Hampton: Last year on the podcast, we talked about how the 60/40 claimed the top spot, but the tables have turned. How did the more diversified portfolio win this time?

Arnott: Yeah, our more diversified test portfolio was up about 18.5% in 2025, which was about five percentage points ahead of that kind of plain-vanilla version of the 60/40 portfolio. That was actually the best showing for the diversified portfolio since 2009.

Hampton: Now, international stocks dominated US stocks last year after a long slump. Talk about their performance and their correlation with US stocks.

Arnott: Yeah. International stocks benefited from two main things last year. One was weakness in the dollar, which was a tailwind for their returns when you translated results back into dollars. They also headed into 2025 with lower valuations, which also helped their performance during the year. Another interesting thing is that we have seen more of a divergence in performance between US stocks and international stocks. If you look a few years ago, like 2020, correlations were as high as 0.95 or even a little bit higher than that. For the most recent three-year period, they have dropped below 0.70 or so. You’re getting a bigger advantage from diversifying into international stocks.

Hampton: Let’s talk about fixed income. How did bonds hold up during bouts of market volatility in 2025?

Arnott: They actually held up really well. If you look at overall weekly returns for US stocks, there were about 25 weeks when stocks had negative returns, and investment returns had positive returns in 21 out of those 25 weeks. They were really able to smooth out performance volatility from equities, which is what people are usually looking for when they add bonds to their portfolios.

Hampton: Inflation concerns are simmering. What does this mean for longer-term bonds?

Arnott: Yeah, we have seen some volatility in long-term Treasury yields so far this year because inflation has been higher than expected and has been kind of stubborn. Because of that, Treasury yields have spiked a couple of times, although they’ve dropped to about 4.5% on the 10-year Treasury as of today.

Hampton: And I’ll say for today: It’s Wednesday, June 3, for everyone listening and watching. We’ve talked about asset classes that you think are worth owning. Which ones do you think most investors could do without and why?

Arnott: I think cryptocurrency is one asset class that often gets kind of hyped up because of its potential diversification benefits. It’s true that over long periods, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum have had very low correlation with US stocks, but during periods of market volatility, that diversification benefit isn’t always there. I would say that the diversification benefit almost gets overwhelmed by the extreme volatility. Crypto is one thing I would point to as something you don’t necessarily need to own. Any type of sector fund, I think, is very difficult to use effectively in a portfolio because a lot of people tend to see great returns over the most recent period and are tempted to add it, but that might end up being the wrong time to add if it’s already had a great run and valuations are relatively high. Private equity and private credit, there’s a lot of buzz around, should individual investors add these to their portfolios, and there’s a potential benefit in terms of risk-adjusted returns, but they also come with much higher costs and much lower liquidity. That’s another area where I would be cautious about adding them to your portfolio.

Hampton: What do you think are the biggest challenges to portfolio diversification right now?

Arnott: I think one of the biggest challenges is inflation. As I mentioned, it’s been running a bit hotter than people had expected earlier in the year. Even if you look at a safe-haven asset like cash, previously, you were able to still get a slight return advantage over inflation, but that has really kind of disappeared. The current yield on cash is about 3.7% versus 3.8% or 3.9% for inflation. I think that’s a challenge, especially for people who are looking to add safer assets to their portfolios.

Hampton: I’m glad you brought up cash because I had a question about that. If you’re a retiree or you’re risk-averse, is that the path towards shielding yourself from volatility—holding cash?

Arnott: Yeah, I think definitely if you’re retired, you want to have part of your portfolio in cash. Probably at least one or two years’ worth of planned expenses, and that way, if the market does hit a rough spot, you’re able to draw from that cash pool to cover your spending, and you won’t be forced to sell off stocks or bonds into market weakness.

Hampton: What’s the takeaway for investors if they want to build and maintain a diversified portfolio?

Arnott: I would point to a couple of asset classes that I think almost every investor should have in their portfolios: US stocks, broadly diversified exposure to international stocks, investment-grade bonds, and then a small portion in cash. As I mentioned, maybe one or two years’ worth of expenses if you’re retired, but even if you’re not retired, you still want to have enough cash in your portfolio to cover a potential emergency or job loss, things like that.

Hampton: I love those takeaways. Amy, thank you for coming back to the table. You’re always welcome.

Arnott: Thanks for having me.

Hampton: That wraps up this week’s episode. Thanks for making this show part of your day. A couple of reminders. Give Investing Insights five stars on Apple Podcasts to help others find the work we’re producing for you, and subscribe to Morningstar’s YouTube channel to watch new videos from our team. Thanks to senior video producer Jake Vankersen. I’m Ivanna Hampton, editorial multimedia manager at Morningstar. Take care.