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Post Holdings Inc POST

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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Premier Protein Continues to Boost Sales for No-Moat Post; Shares Look Modestly Undervalued

Analyst Note

| Rebecca Scheuneman, CFA |

No-moat Post delivered first-quarter results in line with our expectations, with consolidated revenue increasing 0.1% to $1,458 million. BellRing Brands’ strong growth (up 15.7% this quarter) helped to offset continued depressed sales in the food-service segment (down 15.7%). We were disappointed to see lackluster revenue growth from the Post consumer brands segment, as consumers are still largely sheltering at home. The segment posted 0.9% sales growth, missing our 5.0% estimate. Conversely, we are optimistic about the recent announcement of the high-protein cereal collaboration between Post and Premier Protein. We believe it is an opportunity to drive organic growth in the challenging cereal category and for Premier to expand beyond its current category.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Post Holdings is a packaged food company that primarily operates in North America and Europe. For fiscal 2020, 42% of the company’s revenue came from cereal, with brands such as Honeycomb, Grape-Nuts, Shredded Wheat, Pebbles, Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, Weetabix, and Alpen. Refrigerated food made up 41% of 2020 revenue and services the retail (17% of company sales) and food-service channels (24%), providing value-added egg and potato products, prepared side dishes, cheese, and sausage under brands Bob Evans and Simply Potatoes. The stake in BellRing Brands makes up the remaining 17% of revenue, with protein-based shakes, powders, and bars that sell under the Premier Protein, PowerBar, and Dymatize brands.

2503 South Hanley Road
St. Louis, MO, 63144
T +1 314 644-7600
Sector Consumer Defensive
Industry Packaged Foods
Most Recent Earnings Dec 31, 2020
Fiscal Year End Sep 30, 2021
Stock Type Slow Growth
Employees 10,200