Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS

Las Vegas Sands' Regulatory Advantage Intact Despite Near-Term Promotional Pressure in Macao

We are constructive on Sands' dominant positions in its Macao (48% of estimated 2030 EBITDA) and Singapore (52%) businesses over the long term. This view is supported by strong returns on recent investments in the region that we think will strengthen the brand in the regions. In 2025, Sands completed $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. In 2025, Londoner revenue was up 29%. Further, we see solid Macao visitation and sales growth over the next decade, aided by key infrastructure projects that alleviate Macao's congested traffic (Pac On Terminal expansion and Hong Kong Bridge in 2018, light-rail transit in 2019, and ongoing high-speed rail connections with the mainland) and enhance the user experience (nongaming amenities), boosting visitation and spending levels. Although government regulation can present material potential demand headwinds, we forecast annual mid-single-digit steady-state visitation and gaming revenue growth in Macao during the latter half of the decade.