MGM Resorts International MGM

MGM's Vegas Assets Are Benefiting From an Improved Calendar and US Infrastructure Investments

MGM's Las Vegas (56% of 2025 EBITDAR) demand should rebound starting in 2026, supported by a stronger convention calendar and maintained GDP-like growth. Beyond 2026, MGM's Vegas resorts stand to benefit from the NCAA national football championship in 2027, while 2028 entertains the NCAA basketball Final Four, the start of the A's MLB team's relocation, and a potential NBA expansion team. Also, there have been very minimal industry supply additions in Vegas this decade; this should support solid industry Strip occupancy, which stood at around 80% in 2025. Additionally, MGM’s casinos are positioned to benefit from multi-billion-dollar US sports betting and i-gaming markets, generating an estimated 12% of the company's 2030 sales (based on its 50% ownership of BetMGM) despite intense competition. However, the US doesn’t offer the long-term growth potential or regulatory barriers of Macao; thus, we do not believe the region contributes to a moat for MGM.