Company Reports

We are constructive on Sands' dominant positions in its Macao (49% of estimated 2030 EBITDA) and Singapore (51%) businesses over the long term. This view is supported by strong returns on recent investments that we think will strengthen the brand in the regions. In 2025, Sands completed $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. In 2025, Londoner revenue was up 29%. Further, we see solid Macao visitation and sales growth over the next decade, aided by key infrastructure projects that alleviate Macao's congested traffic (Pac On Terminal expansion and Hong Kong Bridge in 2018, light-rail transit in 2019, and ongoing high-speed rail connections with the mainland) and enhance the user experience (nongaming amenities), boosting visitation and spending levels. Although government regulation can present material potential demand headwinds, we forecast annual mid-single-digit steady-state visitation and gaming revenue growth in Macao during the latter half of the decade.

Las Vegas Sands' second-quarter revenue decreased 0.7%. Total adjusted EBITDA margins declined 650 basis points to 35.5%, driven by a 750-basis-point decline in Macao to 24%. Shares were down 5% during July 22 after-hours trading.

We are constructive on Sands' dominant positions in its Macao (48% of estimated 2030 EBITDA) and Singapore (52%) businesses over the long term. This view is supported by strong returns on recent investments in the region that we think will strengthen the brand in the regions. In 2025, Sands completed $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. In 2025, Londoner revenue was up 29%. Further, we see solid Macao visitation and sales growth over the next decade, aided by key infrastructure projects that alleviate Macao's congested traffic (Pac On Terminal expansion and Hong Kong Bridge in 2018, light-rail transit in 2019, and ongoing high-speed rail connections with the mainland) and enhance the user experience (nongaming amenities), boosting visitation and spending levels. Although government regulation can present material potential demand headwinds, we forecast annual mid-single-digit steady-state visitation and gaming revenue growth in Macao during the latter half of the decade.

Las Vegas Sands' first-quarter revenue increased 25% with both its Macao and Singapore regions near that level. Total adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 20 basis points to 39.6% due to Macao's margin dropping to 29.9% from 31.3%.

Las Vegas Sands named Patrick Dumont as CEO, effective March 1, 2026, to succeed Robert Goldstein, who will serve as an advisor through March 2028. Dumont joined the firm in 2010, became a board member in 2017, and has served as president and chief operating officer since 2021.

We are constructive on Sands' dominant positions in its Macao (51% of estimated 2030 EBITDA) and Singapore (49%) businesses over the long term. This view is supported by strong returns on recent investments in the region that we think will strengthen the brand in the regions. In 2025, Sands completed $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. In 2025, Londoner revenue was up 29%. Further, we see solid Macao visitation and sales growth over the next decade, aided by key infrastructure projects that alleviate Macao's congested traffic (Pac On Terminal expansion and Hong Kong Bridge in 2018, light-rail transit in 2019, and ongoing high-speed rail connections with the mainland) and enhance the user experience (nongaming amenities), boosting visitation and spending levels. Although government regulation can present material potential demand headwinds, we forecast annual mid-single-digit steady-state visitation and gaming revenue growth in Macao during the latter half of the decade.

Las Vegas Sands posted fourth-quarter sales growth of 41% and 16% at its Singapore and Macao resorts, respectively. But shares dropped 10% after hours on Jan. 28 after Macao EBITDA margins fell 270 basis points to 29.5% due to higher promotions and a mix shift to lower-margin premium/VIP players.

We are constructive on Sands' dominant positions in its Macao (53% of estimated 2030 EBITDA) and Singapore (47%) businesses over the long term. This view is supported by strong returns on recent investments in the region that we think will strengthen the brand in the regions. In 2025, Sands completed $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. In the second quarter, Londoner revenue was up 49%. Further, we see solid Macao visitation and sales growth over the next decade, aided by key infrastructure projects that alleviate Macao's congested traffic (Pac On Terminal expansion and Hong Kong Bridge in 2018, light-rail transit in 2019, and ongoing high-speed rail connections with the mainland) and enhance the user experience (nongaming amenities), boosting visitation and spending levels. Although government regulation can present material potential demand headwinds, we forecast annual mid-single-digit steady-state visitation and gaming revenue growth in Macao during the latter half of the decade.

Las Vegas Sands' shares rose 6% in after-hours trading on Oct 22, driven by spectacular 56% revenue growth at its Singapore resort (55% of EBITDA) and solid 8% sales growth in its Macao region. The strength in Singapore helped drive its EBITDA margin to 40.3% from 37% a year ago.

We are constructive on Sands' dominant positions in its Macao (58% of estimated 2030 EBITDA) and Singapore (42%) businesses over the long term. This view is supported by strong returns on recent investments in the region that we think will strengthen the brand in the regions. In 2025, Sands completes $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. In the second quarter, Londoner revenue was up 45%. Further, we see solid Macao visitation and sales growth over the next decade, aided by key infrastructure projects that alleviate Macao's congested traffic (Pac On Terminal expansion and Hong Kong Bridge in 2018, light-rail transit in 2019, and ongoing high-speed rail connections with the mainland) and enhance the user experience (nongaming amenities), boosting visitation and spending levels. Although government regulation can present material potential demand headwinds, we forecast annual mid-single-digit steady-state visitation and gaming revenue growth in Macao during the latter half of the decade.

Las Vegas Sands' second-quarter total revenue grew by 15%, led by a 37% increase in Singapore, with Macao up just 2.5%. Consolidated EBITDA margins rose to 42% from 38.9% off the back of a stout 55.3% margin in Singapore, with Macao's margin dropping to 31.5% from 32% on higher promotions.

In late February, President Donald Trump added Macao to the list of “foreign adversary” countries, restricting the region from investing in US areas such as technology, infrastructure, and energy. In addition, Trump’s tariff war is moving the US further toward protectionism, a shift we see lasting for the foreseeable future. Also, the Macao market is highly regulated, and as a result, the pace and timing of growth are at the discretion of the government. As a result, we think investors are seeking an incremental risk premium for Las Vegas Sands' Macao expsoure (61% of estimated 2030 EBITDA).

Las Vegas Sands' first-quarter sales fell 3% and EBITDA margins contracted 100 basis points to 39.8%, hindered by economic uncertainty and asset renovations. In Macao, sales fell 6% and EBITDA margins decreased 240 basis points to 31.3%. In Singapore, revenue and margins were largely flat.

We have adjusted our cost of equity assumptions for Wynn, Las Vegas Sands, and MGM due to their exposure to Macao, increasing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, and to harmonize with our assumptions for the Hong Kong-listed shares.

In late February, President Donald Trump added Macao to the list of “foreign adversary” countries, restricting the region from investing in US areas such as technology, infrastructure, and energy. In addition, Trump’s tariff war is moving the US further toward protectionism, a shift we see lasting for the foreseeable future. Also, the Macao market is highly regulated, and as a result, the pace and timing of growth are at the discretion of the government. As a result, we think investors are seeking an incremental risk premium for Las Vegas Sands' Macao expsoure (60% of estimated EBITDA by the end of 2030).

We expect Las Vegas Sands' Macao resorts (53% of 2024 EBITDA) will continue to see a sales recovery in 2025 after China's removal of covid-19 restrictions in January 2023. We also think Las Vegas Sands and the Macao gaming enclave are well positioned for long-term growth. Not only does Sands hold a dominant mass and nongaming position on the attractive Cotai Strip in Macao, but we think its reinvestment in its assets in the region will strengthen the brand locally. In 2025, Sands is scheduled to complete $3.4 billion worth of investments to convert one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme, upgrade its rooms at its Four Seasons resort and Conrad and Sheraton locations, and renovate its Cotai arena facility. Sands' position in the profitable Singapore gaming market (47% of 2027 EBITDA), where a duopoly remains in place through 2030, is buoyed by the company expanding its presence with the renovation of its existing towers in 2023-25 and $8 billion development (including land payments) of a fourth tower, which we think can open in 2031, solidifying our view of the firm's long-term growth.

Las Vegas Sands shares popped 10% during after-hours trading on Jan. 29, as investors began to look past near-term renovation disruptions and toward the company’s enhanced long-term asset position. We don’t expect a material change to our $60 per share fair value estimate. We see shares of this regulatory advantaged company (source of its narrow moat) as undervalued even after the upward move in shares after earnings.

We expect Las Vegas Sands' Macao resorts (54% of 2023 EBITDA) will continue to see healthy revenue growth in 2024 after China's removal of covid-19 restrictions in January of 2023. We also think Las Vegas Sands and the Macao gaming enclave are well positioned for long-term growth. Not only does Sands hold a dominant mass and nongaming position on the attractive Cotai Strip in Macao, but we think it will reinvest back into its assets within the region, strengthening the brand locally. To this point, Sands has recently completed $2.2 billion worth of investments in converting one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme and upgrading its rooms at its Four Seasons resort. Futher, it will be investing another $1.2 billion in 2024 to renovate rooms at its Conrad and Sheraton locations and upgrade its Cotai arena facility. Meanwhile, Sands' position in the profitable Singapore gaming market (46% of 2023 EBITDA), where a duopoly remains in place through 2030, is buoyed by the company expanding its presence with the renovation of its existing towers in 2023-25 and $8 billion development (including land payments) of a fourth tower, which we think can open in 2031, solidifying our view of the firm's long-term growth.

In our view, investors should look past narrow-moat Las Vegas Sands’ third-quarter results that were affected by transitory construction disruptions and lower hold. Instead, we think the focus should be on the prudent investments the company is making in its Macao and Singapore businesses, which will support revenue and profit growth starting next year, as well as buoy its regulatory edge (source of its narrow moat). We don’t plan to change our $58 per share fair value estimate materially, leaving shares undervalued.

We expect Las Vegas Sands' Macao resorts (54% of 2023 EBITDA) will continue to see healthy revenue growth in 2024 after China's removal of covid-19 restrictions in January of 2023. We also think Las Vegas Sands and the Macao gaming enclave are well positioned for long-term growth. Not only does Sands hold a dominant mass and nongaming position on the attractive Cotai Strip in Macao, but we think it will reinvest back into its assets within the region, strengthening the brand locally. To this point, Sands has recently completed $2.2 billion worth of investments in converting one of its Cotai properties to a London-based theme and upgrading its rooms at its Four Seasons resort. Futher, it will be investing another $1.2 billion in 2024 to renovate rooms at its Conrad and Sheraton locations and upgrade its Cotai arena facility. Meanwhile, Sands' position in the profitable Singapore gaming market (46% of 2023 EBITDA), where a duopoly remains in place through 2030, is buoyed by the company expanding its presence with the renovation of its existing towers in 2023-25 and eventual development of a fourth tower, which we think can open in mid-2029, solidifying our view of the firm's long-term growth.