Analyst Note| Karen Andersen, CFA |
While strong antibody and T-cell responses in several phase 1 studies of COVID-19 vaccines don't guarantee protection against infection or severe disease, we're increasingly bullish that most of the vaccines entering late-stage development in the U.S. will meet Food and Drug Administration guidelines for approval (50% risk reduction). We expect the FDA could award three emergency use authorizations, or EUAs, for use in high-risk individuals before the end of the year for Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and AstraZeneca/Oxford, based on interim efficacy data from phase 3 studies. We expect most U.S. adults will be vaccinated in the first half of 2021. The rapid progress with these vaccine programs is a testament to the innovation and clinical trial expertise at wide moat firms like Pfizer and AstraZeneca and the positive moat trend at RNA vaccine firm BioNTech. Beyond vaccines, we still model significant sales for Gilead's Veklury (antiviral treatment) and Roche and Regeneron's REGN-COV2 (treatment and prevention antibody), but we also expect these sales to rapidly decline following 2021.