Analyst Note| Damien Conover, CFA |
Pfizer and partner BioNTech reported strong final data from the phase 3 study with COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2, supporting an efficacy rate of 95% (previously reported over 90% at interim analysis) with no major safety issues observed. We continue to project the vaccine’s probability of full approval at 90%, supporting sales projections of EUR 13 billion in 2021. We don’t expect any major changes to our fair value estimates for Pfizer or BioNTech. The relatively rapid development of the vaccine reinforces the innovative power behind Pfizer’s wide moat and BioNTech’s positive moat trend.