Skip to Content

Novo Nordisk A/S ADR NVO

Rating as of

Morningstar’s Analysis

Valuation
Currency in USD
Is it the right time to buy or sell?
Find out with Morningstar Premium
Is it the right time to buy or sell?
Find out with Morningstar Premium

1-Star Price

PREMIUM

5-Star Price

PREMIUM

Economic Moat

PREMIUM

Capital Allocation

PREMIUM

Maintaining Our $73/DKK 453 FVE for Novo Nordisk Following Emerging Strength in Q1

Karen Andersen, CFA Sector Strategist

Analyst Note

| Karen Andersen, CFA |

Novo Nordisk reported first-quarter results that were slightly above our expectations, with 7% top-line growth at constant currencies (flat as reported, due to currency headwinds). This performance is particularly strong, given the pandemic-related stocking that boosted sales in the year-ago quarter; after adjusting for stocking and shipment timing, underlying first-quarter sales growth was closer to 9% at constant currencies. We have raised our forecast for 2021 reported sales growth from 5% to 6.6%, putting it at the higher end of management's new 2%-6% reported sales growth guidance (6%-10% at constant currencies). However, after slightly tempering our U.S. GLP-1 growth estimates for the year, and factoring in upcoming potential pressure on China sales of insulin from volume-based procurement, this doesn't significantly change our valuation, and we're maintaining our fair value estimate of $73/DKK 453 per share. We see U.S. growth slightly improving in 2021 as Novo annualizes some step-ups in affordability initiatives from 2020 for its insulin therapies and as the Rybelsus launch should accelerate. While Novo is increasingly reliant on semaglutide for growth opportunities, diversification among indications and formulations to protect the franchise, in our view, and we think the firm's continued innovation in cardiometabolic-related disorders warrants a wide moat.

Read Full Analysis

Company Profile

Business Description

With almost 50% market share by volume of the global insulin market, Novo Nordisk is the leading provider of diabetes-care products in the world. Based in Denmark, the company manufactures and markets a variety of human and modern insulins, injectable diabetes treatments, and oral antidiabetic agents. Novo also has a biopharmaceutical segment (constituting roughly 15% of revenue) that specializes in protein therapies for hemophilia and other disorders.

Contact
Novo Alle 1
Bagsvaerd, DK-2880, Denmark
T +45 44448888
Sector Healthcare
Industry Biotechnology
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 45,777

Related

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

  • Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
  • Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
  • Develop and improve features of our offerings.
  • Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.