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Match Group Inc MTCH

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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Match Reports Mixed Q4 Results and Provides In-Line 2021 Guidance; Raising FVE to $111

Ali Mogharabi Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Ali Mogharabi |

Match beat fourth-quarter 2020 expectations on the top line but came up short on the bottom line. Tinder user growth slowed, but growth in non-Tinder users accelerated year over year for the third consecutive quarter. While we are not certain whether non-Tinder user growth is coming at the expense of faster growth in Tinder users, it appears that Match’s diversified portfolio is performing well on all fronts. Management provided full-year outlook in line with the FactSet consensus, although the latest revenue consensus is at the high end of the range provided by the firm. We increased our projections and expect 2021 revenue above the guidance range, as we believe pent-up demand and more long-term changes in romance- or partner-seeking behavior will benefit Match. After rolling our model forward, our fair value estimate for Match increased to $111, up from $87. While the stock dipped around 8% after the firm’s earnings release, we continue to believe that this narrow-moat name is too expensive for new investors.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Match Group is a provider of online dating products. The firm became public in 2015 and was more than 80% owned by IAC/InterActiveCorp until IAC spun it off in second-quarter 2020. The company has a vast portfolio of different online dating service providers, including Tinder,, OkCupid, PlentyOfFish, and Meetic. Match Group has more than 45 brands of online dating sites and/or apps, from which it generates user fee revenue (95%) and advertising revenue (5%).

8750 North Central Expressway, Suite 1400
Dallas, TX, 75231
T +1 214 576-9352
Sector Communication Services
Industry Internet Content & Information
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2020
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Aggressive Growth
Employees 8,700