Analyst Note
| Karen Andersen, CFA |The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia has ruled in favor of Mylan in a Tecfidera-related patent dispute, and we're lowering our Biogen fair value estimate to $389 from $413 as a result of the news. Even though Biogen plans to appeal, we assume this decision in favor of Mylan (key Tecfidera '514 patent deemed invalid) could lead to generic headwinds in 2021 in the U.S. Before the West Virginia decision, U.S. protection looked likely to stand until close to 2028, given positive U.S. IPR (inter partes review) and Forward Pharma litigation rulings in 2017, and another positive IPR ruling (filed by Mylan) in February 2020.