Skip to Content
Morningstar
Get 14 Days Free

Eli Lilly and Co LLY

Morningstar Rating
Rating as of

Morningstar’s Analysis

Valuation
Currency in USD
Is it the right time to buy or sell?
Find out with Morningstar Premium
Is it the right time to buy or sell?
Find out with Morningstar Premium

1-Star Price

PREMIUM

5-Star Price

PREMIUM

Economic Moat

PREMIUM

Capital Allocation

PREMIUM

Eli Lilly Is Poised to File Alzheimer’s Drug Donanemab in 2021; Increasing Fair Value to $215

Damien Conover, CFA Sector Director

Analyst Note

| Damien Conover, CFA |

Eli Lilly’s announcement of filing Alzheimer’s drug donanemab based on phase 2 data along with the lower bar signaled for Alzheimer’s drug approvals, as shown by Biogen’s Aduhelm approval, led us to increase our expected peak annual donanemab sales to over $9 billion (up from over $2 billion), driving our fair value estimate to $215 from $180. Eli Lilly announced a shift in filing strategy for donanemab, likely due to the recent approval of Aduhelm. Since Aduhelm gained approval based on one successful study, we believe the probability that donanemab will be approved is 85% based on the successful phase 2 Trailblazer study. Adding donanemab to Lilly’s portfolio should reinforce the company’s wide moat.

Read Full Analysis

Company Profile

Business Description

Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, endocrinology, oncology, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Alimta and Verzenio for cancer; Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for diabetes; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.

Contact
Lilly Corporate Center
Indianapolis, IN, 46285
T +1 317 276-2000
Sector Healthcare
Industry Drug Manufacturers - General
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Classic Growth
Employees 19,500

Related

Market Update
These Sectors Performed Best and Worst in the Pandemic
We look at the industries for those most affected by social-distancing and stay-at-home orders.
Sachin Nagarajan
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
COVID-19 Sales Have No Major Impact on Drug and Vaccine Manufacturers We Cover
However, the biopharma industry's ability to adapt and innovate to treat disease reinforces our moat ratings.
Karen Andersen
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Biopharma Companies With COVID-19 Treatments See $10 Billion Market in 2021
We expect quickly declining sales potential after that, however.
Damien Conover
Stock Analyst Update
Eli Lilly Provides Strong Outlook and Positive Updates
The wide-moat firm continues to show significant innovation. We plan to increase our fair value estimate.
Damien Conover
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Implementation of Trump's Drug-Pricing Orders Unlikely
We don't foresee any impact on pharma companies' moats or valuations.
Damien Conover
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
We Still Expect a Strong U.S. Economic Recovery
Neither the U.S. election outcome nor the coronavirus third wave will derail it.
Preston Caldwell
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Slow Burn Likely Until Coronavirus Vaccines Are Widely Available
Resurgences in outbreaks make it clear that ending the pandemic will require more than diagnostic testing, contact tracing, and social distancing.
Karen Andersen
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Innovation Supports Growth at Big Pharma/Big Biotech Companies
Moats and returns on invested capital look stable for companies with a solid list of pipeline drugs.
Damien Conover
Stock Analyst Update
Drug Pricing Executive Orders Not Likely to Affect FVEs
We don’t expect these actions by President Trump to significantly affect our fair value estimates or moat ratings due to limited details, challenging implementation, and only minor impacts.
Damien Conover
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Timeline Accelerates for COVID-19 Drug Development
Three new vaccines for coronavirus look poised for emergency use authorization in the U.S. this fall.
Karen Andersen
Stock Strategist
Positive Data Boosts Outlook for Lilly
The wide-moat drugmaker's growth prospects are improving.
Damien Conover
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Coronavirus Vaccine Progress Accelerates
Diagnostic testing, treatment, and a coronavirus vaccine could allow near-normal distancing and nonessential business recovery by mid-2021.
Karen Andersen
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
Coronavirus Has Limited Impact on Big Pharma and Big Biotech
Moats, valuations, and dividends look attractive in the market pullback.
Damien Conover
Stock Analyst Update
Recent Drug Launches Support Strong Quarter for Lilly
We have raised our fair value estimate based on an improving outlook.
Damien Conover
Commentary
The Week Ahead: Earnings Heat Up With Apple, Amazon, and Facebook
Reports are also due for Visa, Exxon, Verizon, and many more.
Jess Liu
Stock Strategist Industry Reports
How ESG Risk Affects Pharma and Biotech Moats and Valuations
Morningstar and Sustainalytics offer complementary methodologies.
Karen Andersen
Investing Specialists
Our Ultimate Stock-Pickers' Top 10 Dividend-Yielding Stocks
We find several actionable ideas that yield more than the S&P 500.
The Morningstar Ultimate Stock-Pickers Team
Advisor Insights
Big Pharma, Wide Moats
Innovation and M&A may drive these firms' fortunes.
Laura Lallos
US Videos
Acquisitions Targets Among Drugmakers
We think the market underappreciates some large pharma and biotech names.
Karen Andersen
Stock Strategist
Incyte's Undervalued as Pipeline Progresses
A broad array of oncology and autoimmune programs gives the company a larger margin of error.
Karen Andersen

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

  • Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
  • Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
  • Develop and improve features of our offerings.
  • Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.