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Moderna Inc MRNA

Morningstar Rating
$95.06 +2.82 (3.06%)
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Company Report

Moderna Earnings: Several Phase 3 Readouts and RSV Launch in 2024 Support Our Fair Value Estimate

Moderna reported $6.8 billion in revenue in 2023, a 64% decrease from 2022, as demand for covid vaccines faded, but we’re maintaining our $227 fair value estimate as we think the firm is well positioned in a steadying covid market, with multiple new launches on tap for the 2024-26 period. Beyond the lower reported revenue, a combination of heavy charges to reduce the firm’s manufacturing footprint, expansion of commercial capabilities, and a growing number of large clinical trials swung the firm to a $4.7 billion net loss in 2023. Moderna has gained significant share in the premium-priced US covid vaccine market, and still retains $13.3 billion in cash to help power two years of heavy investment before we expect the firm to break even in 2026. We think Moderna is on track to generate $4.3 billion in revenue in 2024, slightly ahead of the firm’s $4 billion guidance, given the upcoming RSV launch (we assume $500 million in 2024 RSV sales). Pipeline progression is helping Moderna build an economic moat, although we still see very high uncertainty surrounding its shares. Overall, we think shares look significantly undervalued, as the market is failing to incorporate the value of mRNA technology beyond covid.

Price vs Fair Value

MRNA is trading within a range we consider fairly valued.
Price
$95.06
Fair Value
$463.00
Uncertainty
Very High
1-Star Price
$151.58
5-Star Price
$513.10
Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The stellar efficacy and safety profile of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine offered rapid validation of the firm's mRNA technology.

Bears

Moderna's Alexion partnership was terminated in 2017 after failure to find a safe but effective dose for the lead program, which could foreshadow difficulty finding a therapeutic window beyond low-dose vaccine programs.

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$92.24
Day Range
$92.1196.88
52-Week Range
$62.55163.24
Bid/Ask
$94.87 / $95.07
Market Cap
$36.32 Bil
Volume/Avg
3.8 Mil / 5.3 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
35.38
Price/Sales
5.38
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Dividend Yield (Forward)
Total Yield
3.17%

Company Profile

Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in December 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its COVID-19 vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 39 mRNA development candidates in clinical trials as of mid-2023. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Stock Style Box
Mid Growth
Total Number of Employees
5,600

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
MRNA
PFE
BNTX
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
35.3814.457.26
Price/Book Value
2.621.691.03
Price/Sales
5.382.573.12
Price/Cash Flow
13.8047.16
Price/Earnings
MRNA
PFE
BNTX

Financial Strength

Metric
MRNA
PFE
BNTX
Quick Ratio
3.210.589.99
Current Ratio
3.420.9110.37
Interest Coverage
−113.820.74877.79
Quick Ratio
MRNA
PFE
BNTX

Profitability

Metric
MRNA
PFE
BNTX
Return on Assets (Normalized)
−20.12%4.98%12.85%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
−26.85%10.90%14.68%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
−26.68%7.28%13.50%
Return on Assets
MRNA
PFE
BNTX
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