Updating Valuation Methodology for U.S. E&Ps

We have adjusted our valuation methodology for U.S. exploration and production companies. Our multistage DCF valuation incorporates five years of explicit projections for a fixed period, typically five years. Terminal values are derived by assuming firms eventually earn their cost of capital in perpetuity. This contrasts with our previous methodology, which modeled the harvesting of all company assets over a 30-year timeframe. The change brings our E&P valuations in line with Morningstar’s standard equity research methodology.

For an industry facing secular decline, it might seem counterintuitive to switch to a perpetuity method. However, we maintain our long-held view that oil and gas demand will keep growing in the short run before slowly declining over a multidecade horizon. We agree that electric vehicles and renewables are effective substitutes for oil and gas, respectively, but light-duty vehicles account for less than half of crude consumption and there are no viable alternatives for the remainder (aviation, shipping, and petrochemicals). And natural gas will remain a core part of the energy mix for many years yet, initially taking share from coal that is still widely used for electric power generation. As production from existing wells declines quickly, the industry will have to keep developing oil and gas reserves to meet this persistent demand, and firms should receive credit for the ability to continue generating returns as a result (even when their current inventories are exhausted). Because our multistage DCF now implicitly incorporates this, the fair value estimate impact is typically positive (with an average increase of 5%-10%).

Even after the increases, bargains in the industry are scarce. Our top picks are low-cost leader Diamondback and APA, which appears to have strong growth potential in as-yet undeveloped Suriname. Price/fair value ratios for the two are 0.89 and 0.78, respectively.