Morningstar

Pfizer Earnings: Our Pipeline View Is Incrementally Positive

Our updated model points to likely revenue declines in 2028 and 2029 and a return to low-single-digit growth in the early 2030s.

Exterior view of the Pfizer headquarters building.
Kena Betancur/VIEWpress via Getty
Securities in This Article
Pfizer Inc
(PFE)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Pfizer

  • Fair Value Estimate
    : $32.00
  • Morningstar Rating
    : ★★★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
    : Narrow
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
    : Medium

What We Thought of Pfizer’s Earnings

Pfizer PFE reported flat revenue (up 7% excluding covid products) and flat earnings in the third quarter. Management raised the midpoints of its 2026 guidance for sales (to $63 billion from $61.5 billion) and adjusted diluted earnings per share (to $3.00 from $2.90). Shares fell 1% intraday on Nov. 3.

Why it matters: Milder covid cases and a late updated vaccine launch weighed on sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty, and pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar sales fell partly due to vaccine hesitancy. But most of Pfizer’s remaining therapies (83% of sales in the quarter) saw solid results.

  • In oncology, Padcev (55% growth) and Lorbrena (44% growth) are gaining share as first-line options in bladder and lung cancers, and Padcev is expanding into earlier-stage, muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
  • Cardiovascular drug Eliquis (25% growth) was the biggest growth driver, but cardiovascular drug Vyndamax (11% growth) and migraine drug Nurtec (33% growth) were also significant contributors.

The bottom line: We’re maintaining our $32 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Pfizer; the shares look fairly valued to us. We think recent pipeline progress will help offset coming patent expirations for Eliquis (2028) and Vyndamax (2031).

  • We see room for Pfizer to differentiate with a monthly option in obesity, although this will depend on tolerability. GLP-1 berobenatide is in phase 3 trials and could launch in 2028, and the GLP-1/amylin combination should have phase 2b efficacy data in the second half of 2027.
  • Tivunatamig (PF’4404) in oncology and tilrekimig in immunology are moving into multiple phase 3 studies and stand out as potential multibillion-dollar annual sales opportunities. We model at least $2 billion in probability-adjusted annual sales for each by 2035.

Long view: Our updated model points to likely revenue declines in 2028 and 2029 and a return to low-single-digit growth in the early 2030s, so we need more pipeline data to align with Pfizer’s goal of high-single-digit growth over 2028-33.

Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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