Moderna Earnings: Raising Fair Value Estimate as Steadying Demand for Respiratory Vaccines Supports Strong Quarter

Key Morningstar Metrics for Moderna

• Fair Value Estimate: $212.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

What We Thought of Moderna’s Earnings

Moderna MRNA reported 29% revenue growth in the third quarter and GAAP net income of $162 million. Management raised full-year guidance to 15%-25% revenue growth, up from prior guidance of up to 10%. Shares fluctuated but were up 6% intraday on Nov. 6.

Why it matters: Moderna’s revenue growth reflects an encouraging stabilization trend in US respiratory vaccination rates, revenue from international vaccine partnerships exceeding expectations, and the brightening US policy outlook.

• Democrats will control Congress and more state governments following the recent US election results, which could help prevent further spread of vaccine hesitancy under the watch of vocal vaccine critic and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
• Despite uncertainty around prospects for Moderna’s norovirus vaccine (in discussions with regulators) and lead rare disease program (awaiting pivotal data later this year), the oncology potential can carry the stock, and covid stability reduces concerns about near-term cash burn.

The bottom line: We’re raising our fair value estimate for no-moat Moderna to $212 per share from $163 after increasing our covid revenue expectations by roughly $200 million annually over our 10-year explicit forecast period and boosting our potential market size estimates for the oncology pipeline.

• With 2026 costs elevated from a $950 million litigation charge in the first quarter, we expect Moderna to further chip away at losses in 2027 and turn a profit in 2029, assuming a successful launch of intismeran in melanoma (and a broader flu vaccine launch) in 2027.
• We’ve increased our assumed market opportunity for intismeran beyond melanoma, as well as for T-cell engager mRNA-2808, following encouraging (albeit early-stage) efficacy data for mRNA-2808 in multiple myeloma and T-cell generation data for intismeran in adjuvant pancreatic cancer.