Ford: First-Quarter Sales May Be as Good as It Gets in 2025

Morningstar’s Metrics for Ford Motor

• Fair Value Estimate: $16.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

First-quarter US auto sales to consumers and fleet customers rose 4.8% year over year, and March grew 10.7% (15% adjusting for selling days), with a seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate of 17.77 million (the best it’s been since April 2021).

We believe consumers pulled sales forward into March because of tariffs due to start in April. We expect tariffs to really hurt sales starting around May or June, once tariff-free inventory depletes from dealer lots. There are as many as four possible tariffs hitting US auto imports in April. Assuming the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico start April 2 (even for US-Mexico-Canada Agreement-compliant vehicles), plus 25% April 3 tariffs and the normal 2.5% US tariff on foreign autos, many vehicles will have at least a 52.5% tariff on them, unless President Donald Trump enacts exemptions. We don’t see a scenario in which consumers avoid paying at least some of these tariffs, so we lower our 2025 US light vehicle sales forecast range to a midpoint of 15.5 million from 16.3 million.

Ford Motor’s F first-quarter deliveries fell 1.3% (we calculate 7.1% growth excluding the discontinued Edge and Transit Connect) on lower fleet volume, while retail channel sales rose 5% and by 19% in March. This is strong growth, but likely means some sales for the final nine months of 2025 got pulled into March. Due to tariffs, we expect Ford to majorly cut or withdraw guidance when reporting first-quarter earnings on April 28.

F-Series volume surged 24.5%, including a 38% rise in March alone, though F-150 Lightning volume fell 7.2% to 7,187 units. Ford’s overall electric vehicle volume grew 11.5%, while hybrids rose 32.9% for a total first-quarter electrified mix of 14.7%, up 320 basis points. Hybrid contributions came from the F-Series, while electric vehicle growth came from the Mach-E and the E-Transit cargo van. Lincoln volume fell 4.7% despite 30% Navigator growth, and Ford Pro software subscriptions rose 20% to about 674,000.