Morningstar

CoreWeave Shares Are Down 45% in the Past Month. Is the Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings?

With shares under pressure from debt concerns, here’s what we’ll be watching in CoreWeave’s earnings.

The CoreWeave logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen.
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Securities in This Article
CoreWeave Inc Ordinary Shares - Class A
(CRWV)

CoreWeave is set to release its third-quarter 2026 earnings report on Nov. 10. Here’s Morningstar’s take on what to look for in CoreWeave’s earnings and the outlook for its stock.

Key Morningstar Metrics for CoreWeave

  • Fair Value Estimate
    : $108.00
  • Morningstar Rating
    : ★★★★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
    : None
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
    : Very High

CoreWeave Earnings Release Date

  • Tuesday, Nov. 10, after the close of trading

What to Watch for in CoreWeave’s Q3 Earnings

  • The biggest question heading into earnings is whether recent coverage of CoreWeave’s corporate bond yield reaching 15% has affected the company’s ability to borrow and its cost of borrowing. Our guess is that the impact is minimal.
  • We’re also watching for on-time deployment of data center capacity and an early ramp-up trend of Nvidia Vera Rubin clusters. Full-year capital expenditure guidance is $35 billion-$39 billion, which means around 1 gigawatt of total capacity to be added throughout 2026. The firm already added 650 megawatts in the first half, so the pressure on the second half is lighter, but it’s still worth watching.
  • We would also like to see continued diversification of the client base across different industries to reduce CoreWeave’s reliance on a few major clients.
  • Following the recent selloff around financing fears, CoreWeave stock appears attractively valued for risk-tolerant investors. That said, we reiterate our Very High Uncertainty rating and remind investors of the wide range of potential outcomes linked to neocloud names like CoreWeave.

The following are excerpts from Morningstar’s company report on CoreWeave.

Fair Value Estimate for CoreWeave

With its 4-star rating, we believe CoreWeave’s stock is moderately undervalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $108 per share.

Over the next three to five years, bookings from established AI providers like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta should allow CoreWeave’s revenue to scale quickly. Despite our five-year compound annual revenue growth forecast of 70%, we do not expect GAAP earnings per share to turn positive over the next three years. Similarly, free cash flow is not expected to turn positive before 2033. We think that CoreWeave’s adjusted operating margin can reach 20%-25%, which is similar to other AI cloud providers.

Read more about CoreWeave’s fair value estimate.

Economic Moat Rating

We do not think CoreWeave has an economic moat at the moment. CoreWeave is one of the four leading neocloud companies (CoreWeave, Nebius, Crusoe, Lambda Labs) that provide essential infrastructure, in most cases Nvidia GPUs, for AI computing workloads. The AI cloud infrastructure market is extremely competitive, with over 200 companies offering similar computing infrastructure. Players like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle are much larger than CoreWeave. Even in a scenario where CoreWeave successfully scales its annual revenue to $100 billion and more over the next decade, company-level return on invested capital still struggles to surpass its cost of capital.

Read more about CoreWeave’s economic moat.

Financial Strength

CoreWeave’s aggressive financing approach makes it one of the most leveraged companies across Morningstar’s technology coverage. As of 2025, the company has over $21 billion in debt on its balance sheet with a net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 9 times. To finance the company’s future cloud expansion, we expect its total debt load to surpass $100 billion by 2030. However, net debt/adjusted EBITDA should decrease from 9 times now to around 3 times by then, thanks to the incremental earnings that CoreWeave’s AI cloud service can bring.

Read more about CoreWeave’s financial strength.

Risk and Uncertainty

We give CoreWeave a Very High Uncertainty Rating. The future of neocloud companies, including CoreWeave, hinges on the long-term demand for AI cloud infrastructure, which is highly uncertain. In addition, although 98% of CoreWeave’s contracts are take-or-pay as of 2025, there is no guarantee that the company can continue to secure such deals.

Read more about CoreWeave’s risk and uncertainty.

CRWV Bulls Say

  • CoreWeave’s deep Nvidia integration and outstanding software orchestration make it a go-to choice for customers looking for best-of-breed GPU clouds, supporting premium prices over other neoclouds.
  • CoreWeave is making an effort to expand its software ecosystem, which can become a new growth point as new offerings become available.
  • Reduction in the unit price of GPU compute should unlock more use cases around large language models, expanding CoreWeave’s total addressable market.

CRWV Bears Say

  • The long-term demand for AI cloud infrastructure is highly uncertain. If CoreWeave is unable to ramp up revenue rapidly, it might default on its debt, leaving its equity stake worthless.
  • CoreWeave needs to overcome multiple supply chain challenges to deliver the contracted capacity on time. Any delays in capacity delivery can negatively impact its growth.
  • CoreWeave’s future expansion plan can fall apart if the company is not able to secure the funds it needs for its cloud buildout.

This article was compiled by Colin Laidley.

This article was generated with the help of automation and reviewed by Morningstar editors. Learn more about Morningstar’s use of automation.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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