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May PCE Report: Inflation Index Up 2.3%, in Line with Expectations

The PCE Price Index increased 0.1% in May.

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The May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased in line with expectations, up 2.3% from year-ago levels.

When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 2.7% from one year ago, above expectations. Economists forecast that the core PCE inflation index would rise 2.6%.

The PCE Price Index increased 0.1% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 0.2%.

May PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index rose 0.1% in May, in line with the FactSet consensus forecast and following an increase of the same amount in April.
  • Core PCE rose 0.2% in May, above forecasts for a 0.1% increase and following an increase of 0.1% in April.
  • The PCE Price Index year over year rose 2.3% in May, in line with forecasts and following an increase of 2.2% in April.
  • Core PCE year over year rose 2.7% in May, above forecasts for a 2.6% increase and following an increase of 2.6% in April.

PCE Price Index vs. Core PCE Price Index

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of 2025-05-31.

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