10 Stocks With the Largest Fair Value Estimate Increases During Q3 Earnings

As the stock market grapples with renewed volatility and uncertainty around the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom, the latest quarterly earnings season has brought relatively few changes to Morningstar analysts’ fair value estimates for the stocks they cover.

At the time of writing, 81% of the 838 US-listed stocks covered by Morningstar analysts have reported earnings. There are some major names yet to come, including Nvidia NVDA next week, while Broadcom AVGO, Adobe ADBE, and Oracle ORCL are scheduled to announce in December.

Among the companies that have reported so far, Morningstar analysts raised fair value estimates by an average of 0.4% during the third-quarter earnings season, well below last quarter’s 3.1% average.

Among the stocks with valuation changes, 4.7% saw increases of 10.0% or more, down from 9.1% in the second quarter. Over the past decade, 6.8% of the group had average quarterly fair value estimate increases of 10.0% or more.

The energy and healthcare sectors saw the highest increases in the most recent quarter. Roughly 8.8% of energy stocks saw a fair value increase of at least 10.0% after third-quarter earnings, and the average increase was 3.3%. Among healthcare companies, 14.4% had fair value increases of at least 10.0%, and the average increase was 2.1%.

Here are the stocks with the largest percentage increases in their fair value estimates:

1. Varonis Systems VRNS: $48 from $28
2. Lumentum Holdings LITE: $1,255 from $750
3. Tenable Holdings TENB: $35 from $23
4. Range Resources RRC: $66 from $46
5. Humana HUM: $502 from $350
6. BBVA BBVA: $30 from $21
7. Corteva CTVA: $20 from $15
8. Moderna MRNA: $212 from $163
9. Instacart CART: $57 from $45
10. PTC PTC: $194 from $160

Here’s what Morningstar analysts say about each stock.

Varonis Systems

• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• Fair Value Estimate: $48.00
• Fair Value Increase: 71%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: None

“Proofpoint, a Thoma Bravo portfolio company, agreed to buy Varonis for $6.3 billion in cash, or $49.75 per share. The price is a 52% premium to Varonis’ share price before rumors regarding a potential takeover began in June.

“The deal supports our view that small security vendors are facing structural headwinds in the form of vendor consolidation as customers spend more on fewer vendors. With Proofpoint and Varonis under the same roof, we’d expect the combined entity to fare better in this landscape.

“We are raising our fair value estimate for no-moat Varonis to $48 from $28, which is the present value of the $49.75 Varonis shareholders will receive when the deal closes in the first half of 2027. We don’t expect any regulatory issues with this deal.”

—Malik Ahmed Khan, senior equity analyst

Take a deeper dive into Khan’s outlook for Varonis.

Lumentum Holdings

• Industry: Communication Equipment
• Fair Value Estimate: $1,255.00
• Fair Value Increase: 67%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Economic Moat: Narrow

“Lumentum posted a blowout fiscal first quarter, with revenue surging 137% and adjusted earnings quadrupling to $4.57 a share. Management guided a strong second quarter driven by continued optics demand. The results came as Marvell unveiled a $115 billion all-stock deal to buy the company.

“Lumentum continues to convert demand for its best-in-class lasers and optical connectivity into improving earnings. Marvell’s acquisition reaffirms Lumentum’s importance as a leader in Indium Phosphide lasers and optical switching connectivity.

“We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Lumentum to $1,255 from $750. We see strategic value for both Marvell and Lumentum in this deal but broadly view it as an overpay given our $360 standalone FVE for Marvell. We raise our stand-alone FVE for Lumentum to $770 from $750.”

—Martin Szumski, equity analyst

Read Szumski’s full take on Lumentum here.

Tenable Holdings

• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• Fair Value Estimate: $35.00
• Fair Value Increase: 52%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: None

“Tenable reported third-quarter financial results, including 9.5% sales growth to $276 million and adjusted operating margins that expanded 380 basis points to 27.1%. Tenable One, the firm’s multimodule exposure management platform, contributed 59% of new business.

“AI-driven attacks continue to drive cyber spending higher. While we expect most of these incremental dollars to flow to larger vendors, we also see Tenable, along with smaller vendors, gaining customer interest from these secular tailwinds.

“We raise our fair value estimate for no-moat Tenable to $35 from $23, driven mostly by higher profitability expectations as the firm expands margins at an impressive pace.”

—Malik Ahmed Khan

The rest of Khan’s take on Tenable can be found here.

Range Resources

• Industry: Oil & Gas E&P
• Fair Value Estimate: $66.00
• Fair Value Increase: 43%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Economic Moat: None

“EQT will acquire Range in an all-stock deal valued at $13 billion. Range shareholders will own about 27% of the combined company, and EQT holders will own 73%. The deal should close in the first quarter of 2027.

“EQT and Range held the longest inventory life in the Appalachian Basin, and combining them removes that inventory from the market for other buyers. The deal makes strategic sense since the adjacent acreage is partly tied to EQT’s midstream operations already.

“We raise our fair value estimate for no-moat Range to $66 per share from $46 and cut no-moat EQT’s to $67 from $70. Range shareholders are the clear winners, while EQT shareholders need most of the synergies to materialize to offset the dilution.”

—Adam Baker, equity analyst

Investors can find more of Baker’s take on Range Resources here.

Humana

• Industry: Healthcare Plans
• Fair Value Estimate: $502.00
• Fair Value Increase: 43%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: Narrow

“On Oct. 8, the Centers for Medicare and Medicare Services released Medicare Advantage star ratings, including composite figures and ratings for each plan. Humana rose 13% in after-hours trading while other MCO shares were much less volatile.

“Humana’s shares rose as a key plan received a rating of 4 stars for 2027, versus 3.5 stars in 2026. That change should improve marketing in 2027 and materially boost profits in 2028, after a couple of years of that key plan falling below the 4-star threshold.

“We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Humana to $502 per share from $350, pushing our assumptions closer to our previous bull case, which depended on significant margin improvement as Humana improves its Medicare Advantage fundamentals.”

—Julie Utterback, senior equity analyst

The rest of Utterback’s take on Humana can be found here.

BBVA

• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• Fair Value Estimate: $30.00
• Fair Value Increase: 43%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: Narrow

“BBVA’s recent run has been strong, with solid growth in lending, maintained asset quality, and boosted shareholder remuneration.

“Net interest margins have held up better than we expected, as BBVA’s strategy of extending the duration of its assets locked in higher interest rates. With forward curves reflecting higher future rates, BBVA’s hedging strategy will, however, mean slower transmission of rates than in the past.”

—Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst

Take a deeper dive into Scholtz’s outlook for BBVA.

Corteva

• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• Fair Value Estimate: $20.00
• Fair Value Increase: 33%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Economic Moat: Narrow

“On Oct. 1, Corteva completed the spinoff of its seeds business, which will be a publicly traded company named Vylor.

“Vylor generated the majority of profits when it was a part of Corteva, so Corteva’s profile will change following the divestiture. Now, Corteva is a crop protection pure-play business.

“Our fair value estimate for Corteva is $20 per share. We lower our Morningstar Economic Moat Rating to narrow from wide as Corteva is a crop protection pure-play, where the useful patent life tends to be 10 years, versus 20 for seeds. We plan to initiate coverage of Vylor in the near future.”

—Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst

Read Goldstein’s full take on Corteva here.

Moderna

• Industry: Biotechnology
• Fair Value Estimate: $212.00
• Fair Value Increase: 30%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: None

“Moderna reported 29% revenue growth in the third quarter and GAAP net income of $162 million. Management raised full-year guidance to 15%-25% revenue growth, up from prior guidance of up to 10% growth. Shares fluctuated but were up 6% intraday on Nov. 6.

“Moderna’s revenue growth reflects an encouraging stabilization trend in US respiratory vaccination rates, as well as revenue from international vaccine partnerships that exceeded expectations, and the US policy outlook has also brightened.

“We’re raising our fair value estimate for no-moat Moderna to $212 from $163 after increasing our covid revenue expectations by roughly $200 million annually over our 10-year explicit forecast period and boosting our potential market size estimates for the oncology pipeline.”

—Karen Andersen, director of equity research

The rest of Andersen’s take on Moderna can be found here.

Instacart

• Industry: Internet Retail
• Fair Value Estimate: $57.00
• Fair Value Increase: 27%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: None

“Instacart reported a 17% rise in third-quarter revenue to $1.1 billion, fueled by higher order volume and advertising. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 23%, but high stock-based compensation limited reported net income growth. The firm announced plans to be acquired by DoorDash for $17 billion.

“Instacart is growing revenue and profit while defending its share in online grocery and local commerce against stalwarts Amazon.com and Walmart and upstart DoorDash. This resilience likely encouraged DoorDash to pursue an acquisition to avoid a protracted market share battle.

“We raised our fair value estimate for no-moat Instacart to $57, reflecting a very high likelihood of approval for the DoorDash deal, and an estimated one year until completion. We maintain our stand-alone fair value estimate of $45.”

—Martin Szumski

Szumski has more about Instacart here.

PTC

• Industry: Software - Application
• Fair Value Estimate: $184.00
• Fair Value Increase: 22%
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: Wide

“PTC announced on Oct. 5 that the company has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Schneider Electric in an all-cash deal for $22.6 billion, or $205 per share. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2027. PTC shares surged 33% following the news.

“The $205-per-share acquisition price matched the level at which PTC stock traded in summer 2025 before artificial intelligence-related fears disrupted the software industry. We believe this is the best price PTC shareholders can get in the current environment, especially given the deal is all-cash.”

—Luke Yang, equity analyst

Read Yang’s full take on PTC here.