Morningstar

July PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 3.7%, Stronger Than Expected

The PCE Price Index increased 0.16% in July.

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The July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a stronger-than-expected increase, up 3.7% from year-ago levels. Economists forecast that the index would rise 3.6%. When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.3% from one year ago, above expectations. Economists forecast that core PCE inflation would rise 3.2%.

The PCE Index increased 0.16% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index increased 0.25%.

July PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Index rose 0.16% in July, above the FactSet consensus forecast for a 0.07% increase and following a decrease of 0.09% in June.
  • Core PCE rose 0.25% in July, above forecasts for a 0.18% increase and following a 0.15% increase in June.
  • The PCE Index rose 3.7% year over year in July, above forecasts of a 3.6% increase and following an increase of the same amount in June.
  • Core PCE rose 3.3% year over year in July, above forecasts of a 3.2% increase and following an increase of the same amount in June.

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