Can the Travel Industry’s Recovery Continue?
Even with inflation and economic uncertainty, people still want to take trips.
Jaime M. Katz
Jaime M. Katz, CFA, is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. She covers home improvement retailers and travel and leisure.
Before joining Morningstar in 2011, Katz was an associate for Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank. She also worked in equity research for William Blair for three years and spent three years in asset management at Mesirow Financial.
Katz holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Wisconsin and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation. She ranked first in the leisure goods and services industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.
Latest
As Bed Bath & Beyond Warns of Bankruptcy, We’re Slashing the Stock’s Fair Value Estimate to Zero
Concerns grow about the home goods retailer’s ability to service its debt.
Home Depot Q3 Earnings Better Than Anticipated, but Long-Term Outlook Remains Unchanged
Stock’s fair value estimate of $267 expected to be increased, shares still overvalued.
Dismal Third Quarter Sinks Carnival Shares
Concerns about a return to consistent profitability should ease in 2023.
Bed Bath & Beyond Names Interim CFO as Changes Continue
We plan to maintain our $8 fair value estimate.
Home Depot Marks Peak Sales in Q2, but Pent-Up Demand Shows Signs of Stabilization
Results beat expectations, but shares now trade at a roughly 25% premium to fair value estimate.
Interest Rates Begin to Affect High Income Consumers, as Evidenced by Slower Demand at RH
We plan to lower our $421 fair value estimate for no-moat RH
Bed Bath & Beyond Demand Stalls Amid Constrained Consumer Environment
Following last quarter’s 25% sales decline, we plan to lower our fair value estimate for the no-moat company.
Appetite for Travel Supports Strong Outlook at Carnival
We think the no-moat cruise company is set up for record revenue in 2023.
Home Improvement Demand Supports Home Depot's Growth
The wide-moat company continues to benefit from housing dynamics like home price appreciation and a shortage in home inventory, despite rising mortgage rates.
Lowering No-Moat Bed Bath & Beyond Fair Value Estimate
We now project a sales decline of 6%.
What Does GameStop's Chair Want for Bed Bath & Beyond?
We plan no change to our fair value estimate; shares fairly valued.
Wide-Moat Home Depot's Growth Rationalizes in 2022
Fourth-quarter results were modestly ahead of our forecast.
Bed Bath & Beyond Loses Traction in Turnaround Plan
We view the shares as undervalued, although we caution investors that the stock could intermittently come under pressure.
Home Depot Profits Bolstered by Elevated Spend
After better-than-expected sales and profit results from the company’s third-quarter print, the company's FVE will be raised.
Bed Bath Rhetoric Signals Slower Housing-Related Growth
Given the difficult year-over-year comparisons for the industry, we anticipate hearing similar rhetoric from other housing-related firms ahead.
Home Depot's Profitability Remains Solid
We surmise some selling, general, and administrative scale gains will cede as Home Depot’s top-line growth normalizes.
Brick-and-Mortar Retail Isn’t Going Away
Robust e-commerce sales by traditional retailers during the COVID-19 pandemic create a lasting role for physical stores.
Momentum Across Home Improvement Bolsters Home Depot
We're increasing our fair value estimate after the firm's strong sales growth.
Summer Season Looks Promising for Cruise Lines
We are raising our fair value estimates for Carnival and Royal Caribbean.
Macy’s Outperformed Low Expectations in Q4
We plan to modestly increase our fair value estimate.
Home Depot's Growth Contingent on COVID-19 Behaviors
We plan to increase our $210 fair value estimate but still see shares as rich.
Stay-at-Home Spending Continues to Benefit Home Depot
We expect to modestly increase its $200 fair value estimate.
Carnival Offers Q3 Update; Shares Modestly Undervalued
No-moat Carnival printed preliminary third-quarter results that included a $1.7 billion adjusted net loss.
Home Depot Benefits From Robust Sales Growth
We plan to raise our $184 fair value estimate for wide-moat Home Depot by a high-single-digit rate after the second quarter.
Investing in Travel in Uncertain Times
Demand has been hindered but not permanently impaired by COVID-19.
Carnival: Dire Early Results, Fair Value Remains
The no-moat firm did a bit better than we expected in the second quarter.
Why Home Depot Should Be on Your Watchlist
Its massive scale creates a low-cost advantage that is the basis of its wide moat.
Safe Work Environment Costs Hinder Home Depot Profits
We are maintaining our fair value estimate and long-term outlook for the wide-moat essential business.
We Lower Our Cruise Company Moats From Narrow to None
We also lowered our fair value estimates for these companies and see their competitive advantages waning from the impact of COVID-19.
L Brands' Sale of Victoria's Secret at Risk
Sycamore is attempting unwind the deal for the narrow-moat firm.
Harley's New Rewire Plan Puts Focus on Profits
We could lower our fair value estimate modestly but still see value in shares at current levels.
Cruise Lines Pare Back Spending, Tap Excess Liquidity
Shares of Carnival, Royal and Norwegian are undervalued and could remain depressed until the coronavirus passes.
Home Depot Delivers Best-in-Class Results
Supportive housing market helps the wide-moat retailer.
L Brands Sells Majority Stake in Victoria's Secret
We would expect to lower our fair value estimate in response to the transaction.
Coronavirus Fear Threatens Royal Caribbean's Outlook
We plan to wait for more clarity on the persistence of the coronavirus before further altering our forward estimates.
Coronavirus Could Take a Bite Out of Carnival's Results
The narrow-moat firm has updated the financial impact that it expects to its business.
Carnival's Brand Equity Intact
We expect stabilizing pricing in 2020 despite ongoing economic struggles abroad.
Cruise Lines Continue to Maintain Moats
Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian are undervalued and worth a look.
Black Friday Bargains in Retail
These stocks have sale tags on them.
Home Depot Posts Solid Operating Results
No changes are planned to our fair value estimate, and we view shares as rich.
Tariffs Drive Retail Disruption at Narrow-Moat Hasbro
We view shares as overvalued, and we plan to increase our fair value estimate.
A High-Quality Name in Powersports
Solid brands, innovative products, and lean manufacturing contribute to Polaris' wide economic moat.
Harley Expands Outreach, Bikes to Attract Customers
We have adjusted our fair value estimate for the wide-moat motorcycle manufacturer.
L Brands' Spin-Off Could Prove Lucrative
We think the company's strength in fragrance more than offsets weakness in lingerie.
Polaris Revs Up Profit Growth With Acquisitions
Healthy margins trump the added cyclicality resulting from recent deals.
A Breakup May Be Just What L Brands Needs
Equity value could be unlocked if the firm was to split in two.
Bed Bath Continues to Cede Share, Stock Overpriced
We plan to modestly lift our fair value estimate but think full earnings potential may be constrained by pricing competition.
A Lower Moat Rating for Kingfisher
Returns on invested capital remain depressed, leading to the downgrade.
Can Strategic Initiatives Rightsize Gap?
Closing stores and spinning off Old Navy will allow the firm to better capitalize on consumer trends and nurse the namesake business back to health.