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Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

Jake VanKersen: Are CEOs overpaid?

Usually, when we talk about this subject, it’s in terms of the ratio between what a CEO is paid and what employees make. And hey, listen, while that conversation is one worth having, Morningstar recently looked at it from a different perspective: Is CEO pay appropriate relative to the value they create for the companies they lead?

Simply put, are CEOs worth what they make?

Now, it’s probably not helpful to do an apples-to-apples comparison between, well, something like Apple and Union Pacific. Instead, it’s better to look at CEO pay across sectors.

Joshua Aguilar: We found that industries with higher predictability allowed compensation mechanisms to work as intended. More volatile sectors, however, need better compensation mechanisms to better align CEO and investor outcomes. For example, defensive sectors' CEO compensation generally offered great return for shareholders. In comparison, energy sectors CEOs were paid higher but failed to create any shareholder value during the most recent bull market. That's because of the widespread use of relative total shareholder return when crafting CEO compensation plans.

The problem with relative TSR is that it measures performance primarily against a self-selected group of peers. So, not only is the deck stacked but relative TSR has allowed management teams to double dip and benefit both when oil rises and falls.

VanKersen: One of the companies in the energy sector, Chesapeake Energy, is worth focusing on for a minute. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on June 28, 2020. In the process of looking over their books, then-CEO Doug Lawler discovered that his predecessor had the company paying for things like $110 million for two parking garages, a wine collection in a cave behind a utility closet, and an NBA season-ticket package to the Oklahoma City Thunder, among other things. And although most of this shocking behavior didn't occur under his watch, things weren't much better for shareholders under Lawler. Economic value created was a negative 2.4% over the most recent 10-year period prior to Lawler's retirement, and the stock price fell nearly 44% in 2018.

Yet, Lawler himself was given a raise that included a $1.25 million cash retention bonus.

With all that, you might be wondering why we just don’t focus on setting a CEO pay in relation to the employees of the company.

Aguilar: CEO pay ratios may certainly be important in the conversation relating to fairness and equity. However, there are several reasons we think the CEO pay ratio is suboptimal for investors.

First, the SEC gives companies wide latitude in how they compute this metric, which, at best, translates to less than ideal peer-to-peer comparisons.

Second, geography makes this metric less useful for investors. Companies with a large contingent of workers from developing nations are more likely to have a high CEO pay ratio.

Third, it’s hard to compare the CEO pay ratio across industries. For instance, manufacturing firms tend to have higher pay ratios than, say, professional services firms.

We think compensation committees should consider using legal instruments, like a rabbi trust, which operates like an M&A earnout. CEOs would earn performance credits when they meet certain milestones. However, these credits wouldn’t be taxable until payments accrue to CEOs, since they’d still be subject to forfeiture by claims of the company’s shareholders.

VanKersen: By tying CEO compensation to value creation, it can make it so that if shareholders suffer, so do CEOs.

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About the Authors

Kristoffer Inton

Equity Strategist, Consumer
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Kristoffer Inton is an equity strategist, ESG, for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers cannabis companies.

Before joining Morningstar in 2013, Inton was an investment banking associate for Guggenheim Securities in New York. Previously, he was an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch in Chicago and New York.

Inton holds a bachelor's degree in finance with high honors from the University of Illinois and a Master of Business Administration with distinction from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

Joshua Aguilar

Director of Equity Research, Resources
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Joshua Aguilar is the director of resources equity research for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.

Aguilar joined Morningstar in 2016 as an associate on the financials team, and he was promoted to analyst on the industrials team in 2018 and to senior analyst in 2022. He has served as associates coordinator since 2021 and led Morningstar's diversity efforts as DEI co-chair since 2020. Aguilar has been a mentor to several associates on their paths to becoming analysts. He also has hosted a Morningstar earnings town hall, participated in analyzing Morningstar stock, and been a strong contributor through both client interactions and his General Electric stock call. Aguilar co-authored an Outstanding Research Achievement-winning piece with colleague Kris Inton on CEO compensation in 2021. He also has taught Morningstar's model to new hires for many years as part of the valuation committee.

Before joining Morningstar, Aguilar was a practicing business transactional attorney in Florida. He graduated magna cum laude with a bachelor's degree in political science and criminology from the University of Florida. He also has a Master of Business Administration from Rollins College and a Juris Doctor from Wake Forest University.

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