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Nutrien Ltd NTR

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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Economic Moat


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Nutrien Reports Solid First-Quarter Results; Shares Slightly Undervalued

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

Nutrien reported solid first-quarter results as adjusted EBITDA was up nearly 60% versus the prior-year quarter. Higher volumes and prices drove the growth in the retail and fertilizer businesses. Given the sharp rise in fertilizer prices to begin the year, we have slightly increased our near-term potash and nitrogen price forecast. Having updated our model to reflect these changes, we raise our Nutrien fair value estimate to $63 per share from $62. Our CAD fair value estimate falls from CAD 79 to CAD 78 due to a strengthening of the loonie versus the dollar since our last update. Our narrow-moat rating is unchanged. We view Nutrien shares as slightly undervalued at current prices, with the stock trading roughly 10% below our fair value estimates but in 3-star territory.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Created in 2018 as a result of the merger between PotashCorp and Agrium, Nutrien is the world’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity. Nutrien produces the three main crop nutrients--nitrogen, potash, and phosphate--although its main focus is potash, where it is the global leader in installed capacity with roughly 20% share. The company is also the largest agricultural retailer in the United States, selling fertilizers, crop chemicals, seeds, and services directly to farm customers through both its physical stores and online platforms.

122 - 1st Avenue South, Suite 500
Saskatoon, SK, S7K 7G3, Canada
T +1 306 933-8500
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Dec 31, 2020
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 23,100