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CF Industries Holdings Inc CF

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Raising CF Industries' FVE to $48 on Higher Near-Term Nitrogen Prices; Shares Fairly Valued

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

CF Industries closed out 2020 with solid fourth-quarter results. Adjusted EBITDA rose slightly versus the prior-year quarter as higher volumes were partially offset by lower prices. Additionally, higher unit production costs were driven by elevated U.S. natural gas prices. We've increased our 2021 urea nitrogen price forecast to $280 per metric ton from $250, as we see a combination of lower Chinese exports and strong demand supporting near-term price increases. However, we maintain our long-term forecast for urea prices of $260 in 2021 real terms. Partially offsetting our outlook for higher prices are increased costs stemming from higher near-term U.S. natural gas prices.

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Company Profile

Business Description

CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers. The company operates seven nitrogen facilities in North America and holds joint-venture interests in further production capacity in the United Kingdom and Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost U.S. natural gas as its feedstock, making CF one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally.

4 Parkway North, Suite 400
Deerfield, IL, 60015
T +1 847 405-2400
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Dec 31, 2020
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 3,000