Analyst Note| Seth Goldstein, CFA |
CF Industries closed out 2020 with solid fourth-quarter results. Adjusted EBITDA rose slightly versus the prior-year quarter as higher volumes were partially offset by lower prices. Additionally, higher unit production costs were driven by elevated U.S. natural gas prices. We've increased our 2021 urea nitrogen price forecast to $280 per metric ton from $250, as we see a combination of lower Chinese exports and strong demand supporting near-term price increases. However, we maintain our long-term forecast for urea prices of $260 in 2021 real terms. Partially offsetting our outlook for higher prices are increased costs stemming from higher near-term U.S. natural gas prices.