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CF Industries Holdings Inc CF

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Stock XNYS Rating as of
$75.15 +0.40 (0.54%)
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CF Industries Earnings: Lower Nitrogen Prices Weigh on Profits

Seth Goldstein

CF Industries' third-quarter results reflected lower nitrogen prices, where spot prices generally bottomed out near the beginning of the quarter, before slightly rising during the quarter. However, we had expected the lower results given our forecast for lower nitrogen prices. With our near- and long-term nitrogen price forecast unchanged, we maintain our $85 per share fair value estimate for CF Industries. Our no-moat rating is also unchanged.

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Price vs Fair Value

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CF is trading at a 12% discount.
Price
$75.15
Fair Value
$85.00
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
$975.76
5-Star Price
$84.00
Economic Moat
Dpgh
Capital Allocation
Bprfkvp

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

High shipping and storage costs for importers of nitrogen fertilizer limit the competition CF faces in North American markets from outside regions with low natural gas costs.

Bears

Soybeans, which do not require nitrogen fertilizer, have seen a growing share of planted acres in North America, hurting nitrogen fertilizer demand.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$74.75
Day Range
$73.85–75.51
52-Week Range
$60.08–108.87
Bid/Ask
$74.68 / $75.52
Market Cap
$14.36 Bil
Volume/Avg
5.1 Mil / 2.2 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
6.96
Price/Sales
1.92
Dividend Yield
2.13%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
2.13%
Total Yield
6.35%

Company Profile

CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers. The company operates seven nitrogen facilities in North America and holds joint venture interests in further production capacity in the United Kingdom and Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost U.S. natural gas as its feedstock, making CF one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally. The company is also investing in carbon-free blue and green ammonia, which can be used an alternative fuel to hydrogen or as a means to transport hydrogen.
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Stock Style Box
Mid Growth
Total Number of Employees
2,700
Website
https://www.cfindustries.com

Competitors

Valuation

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Metric
CF
MOS
APD
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
 6.967.8023.78
Price/Book Value
 2.510.984.20
Price/Sales
 1.920.814.78
Price/Cash Flow
 5.154.9916.60
Price/Earnings
CF
MOS
APD

Financial Strength

Metric
CF
MOS
APD
Quick Ratio
 3.960.511.06
Current Ratio
 4.521.101.33
Interest Coverage
 36.889.9617.24
Quick Ratio
CF
MOS
APD

Profitability

Metric
CF
MOS
APD
Return on Assets (Normalized)
 19.21%5.83%8.67%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
 48.66%11.23%18.41%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
 22.67%8.90%11.11%
Return on Assets
CF
MOS
APD

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