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The Mosaic Co MOS

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No Changes to Our Long-Term Potash Outlook as BHP Moves Forward With New Potash Mine

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

On Aug. 17, BHP announced it will move forward to build the Jansen potash mine is Saskatchewan, Canada. The project is expected to enter production in 2027 and eventually produce 4.35 million metric tons in 2029 when it is fully ramped up. Given our favorable outlook for potash demand, we see little long-term impact to potash prices as demand growth will sop up new supply, leaving the market balanced. As such, we maintain our long-term potash price forecast of $280 per metric ton in 2021 real terms on a China contract basis.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Formed in 2004 by the combination of IMC Global and Cargill's fertilizer business, Mosaic is a leading producer of primary crop nutrients phosphate and potash. The company's assets include phosphate rock mines in Florida, Louisiana, Brazil and Peru, and potash mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and Brazil.

101 East Kennedy Boulevard, Suite 2500
Tampa, FL, 33602
T +1 800 918-8270
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Jun 30, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 13,300