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The Mosaic Co MOS

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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Raising Mosaic FVE to $32 on Higher Near-Term Fertilizer Price Outlook; Shares Fairly Valued

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

Mosaic reported solid first-quarter results as adjusted EBITDA soared nearly 140% versus the prior-year quarter. The growth was driven by higher volumes and prices. Given the sharp rise in fertilizer prices to begin the year, we have increased our near-term phosphate and potash price forecasts, partially offset by higher phosphate input costs. Having updated our model to reflect these changes, we raise our Mosaic fair value estimate to $32 per share from $30. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. At current prices, we view Mosaic shares as slightly overvalued, with the stock trading just above our fair value estimate but in 3-star territory.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Formed in 2004 by the combination of IMC Global and Cargill's fertilizer business, Mosaic is a leading producer of primary crop nutrients phosphate and potash. The company's assets include phosphate rock mines in Florida, Louisiana, Brazil and Peru, and potash mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and Brazil.

101 East Kennedy Boulevard, Suite 2500
Tampa, FL, 33602
T +1 800 918-8270
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 13,300