Analyst Note| Seth Goldstein, CFA |
Mosaic reported solid first-quarter results as adjusted EBITDA soared nearly 140% versus the prior-year quarter. The growth was driven by higher volumes and prices. Given the sharp rise in fertilizer prices to begin the year, we have increased our near-term phosphate and potash price forecasts, partially offset by higher phosphate input costs. Having updated our model to reflect these changes, we raise our Mosaic fair value estimate to $32 per share from $30. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. At current prices, we view Mosaic shares as slightly overvalued, with the stock trading just above our fair value estimate but in 3-star territory.