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The Mosaic Co MOS

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Stock XNYS Rating as of
$35.15 −0.96 (2.66%)
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As of Delayed Price Pre-Open: $35.04 −0.10
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Company Report

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Mosaic Earnings: Profits Reaching Cyclical Bottom as Fertilizer Prices Stabilize

Seth Goldstein

Mosaic's third-quarter results reflected lower fertilizer prices; spot prices for potash and phosphate generally bottomed out near the beginning of the quarter, before slightly rising during the quarter. We think lower fertilizer prices, which now generally sit near our long-term price forecasts, will result in farmers applying more volume this year and in 2024. Having updated our model to incorporate these results, we maintain our $40 fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.

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Price vs Fair Value

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MOS is trading at a 12% discount.
Price
$35.15
Fair Value
$44.00
Uncertainty
Very High
1-Star Price
$85.00
5-Star Price
$65.00
Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Mosaic’s K3 Esterhazy potash mine eliminated its historical flooding issues and will move its potash production costs closer to its low-cost Canpotex peer.

Bears

Low-cost phosphate producers such as state-owned OCP in Morocco continue to expand capacity and could take market share from Mosaic over the long term through the pursuit of a volume-over-price strategy.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$36.11
Day Range
$35.06–36.22
52-Week Range
$31.44–57.46
Bid/Ask
$35.00 / $36.84
Market Cap
$11.49 Bil
Volume/Avg
13 / 3.8 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
7.64
Price/Sales
0.79
Dividend Yield
2.13%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
2.28%
Total Yield
7.97%

Company Profile

Formed in 2004 by the combination of IMC Global and Cargill's fertilizer business, Mosaic is a leading producer of primary crop nutrients phosphate and potash. The company's assets include phosphate rock mines in Florida, Louisiana, Brazil, and Peru and potash mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and Brazil.
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Stock Style Box
Mid Value
Total Number of Employees
13,570
Website
https://www.mosaicco.com

Competitors

Valuation

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Metric
MOS
SQM
CF
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
 7.644.696.78
Price/Book Value
 0.962.672.44
Price/Sales
 0.791.511.87
Price/Cash Flow
 4.889.055.02
Price/Earnings
MOS
SQM
CF

Financial Strength

Metric
MOS
SQM
CF
Quick Ratio
 0.511.523.96
Current Ratio
 1.102.284.52
Interest Coverage
 9.9640.2136.88
Quick Ratio
MOS
SQM
CF

Profitability

Metric
MOS
SQM
CF
Return on Assets (Normalized)
 5.83%27.67%19.21%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
 11.23%59.29%48.66%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
 8.90%36.36%22.67%
Return on Assets
MOS
SQM
CF

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