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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG

Morningstar Rating
$3,172.87 +56.84 (1.82%)
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Company Report

Chipotle Earnings: Robust Growth Prospects, but Shares Too Pricey

We are believers in wide-moat Chipotle Mexican Grill's robust competitive position and growth prospects, but the share price leaves us with indigestion. After another quarter of outperformance, we expect to raise our $1,950 fair value estimate by a mid-single-digit percentage, but the stock would still trade at almost a 50% premium to our revised valuation, deep in 1-star territory. We suggest that investors await a more attractive entry point.

Price vs Fair Value

CMG is trading at a 49% premium.
Price
$2,915.00
Fair Value
$5,743.00
Uncertainty
Medium
1-Star Price
$5,118.30
5-Star Price
$4,741.00
Economic Moat
Wql
Capital Allocation
Kknzyzpy

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Accelerated digital adoption during the pandemic supercharged Chipotle's loyalty program, which should continue to drive increased order frequency and reduce customer churn.

Bears

Consumer spending may shift toward cheaper grocery and c-store channels if the macroenvionment continues to deteriorate, as it has during previous periods of pressure

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$3,116.03
Day Range
$3,124.993,177.49
52-Week Range
$1,768.383,177.49
Bid/Ask
$3,172.41 / $3,177.75
Market Cap
$87.15 Bil
Volume/Avg
133,205 / 257,864

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
65.19
Price/Sales
8.44
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
Dividend Yield (Forward)
Total Yield
0.74%

Company Profile

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $9.9 billion in 2023. The Mexican concept is predominately company-owned (it recently inked a development agreement with Alshaya Group in the Middle East), with a footprint of nearly 3,440 stores at the end of 2023, heavily indexed to the United States, although the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Restaurants
Stock Style Box
Large Growth
Total Number of Employees
116,068

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
CMG
QSR
YUM
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
65.1922.8627.50
Price/Book Value
25.438.20
Price/Sales
8.444.805.70
Price/Cash Flow
48.5721.6123.82
Price/Earnings
CMG
QSR
YUM

Financial Strength

Metric
CMG
QSR
YUM
Quick Ratio
1.510.880.99
Current Ratio
1.651.011.26
Interest Coverage
3.374.54
Quick Ratio
CMG
QSR
YUM

Profitability

Metric
CMG
QSR
YUM
Return on Assets (Normalized)
16.58%6.44%24.79%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
45.82%54.01%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
18.10%9.94%55.35%
Return on Assets
CMG
QSR
YUM
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