Analyst Note| David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE |
Tesla announced record quarterly results on April 26 with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.93 (Refinitiv consensus was $0.79) about four times larger year over year versus first-quarter 2020 and up 16.3% sequentially from fourth-quarter 2020. We are increasing our fair value estimate to $354 from the time value of money adjustment in our model. Revenue increased 74% year over year but fell 3.3% sequentially as combined Model S and Model X deliveries fell by 83% as the company transitions those vehicles to new generation models coming in second and third quarter, respectively. Total deliveries still were a record though thanks to 13.1% sequential growth in combined Model 3 and Model Y sales. We remain comfortable modeling total 2021 deliveries of 800,000 units as demand continues to be strong, the S and X should drive incremental growth later this year, and management talked about combating the semiconductor shortage by quickly finding new microcontrollers and developing new firmware for chips made by new suppliers. The call had no discussion of the shortage so it’s unclear if this mediation effort will last, but we sensed no apprehension from management on the call.