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Tesla Inc TSLA

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Raising Tesla FVE to $700 on Higher Near-Term Vehicle Volumes; Shares Remain Overvalued

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

On Jan. 2, Tesla reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year vehicle delivery numbers. On the year, Tesla reported 936,172 vehicles delivered, which is up over 87% year on year versus 2020. We have updated our model to incorporate higher 2021 sales volumes and have raised our outlook for 2022. We forecast Tesla will deliver a little over 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, which represents over 60% year-on-year growth. Separately, we have decreased our 2022 gross margin forecast for Tesla as we expect increased production costs associated with the opening of the two new production plants in Austin, Texas, (U.S.) and in Berlin, Germany. Our long-term outlook is largely unchanged as we continue to expect Tesla's sales growth will slow.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Founded in 2003 and based in Palo Alto, California, Tesla is a vertically integrated sustainable energy company that also aims to transition the world to electric mobility by making electric vehicles. The company sells solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation plus batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities. Tesla has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans and crossover SUVs. The company also plans to begin selling more affordable sedans and small SUVs, a light truck, a semi truck, and a sports car. Global deliveries in 2020 were roughly 500,000 units.

3500 Deer Creek Road
Palo Alto, CA, 94304
T +1 650 681-5000
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Auto Manufacturers
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 70,757