Analyst Note| Adrian Atkins |
Wide-moat-rated Transurban's recovery from the pandemic continued in fiscal 2023, with a 20% increase in average daily trips and solid toll price uplifts driving a 26% increase in proportional toll revenue to AUD 3.3 billion. However, operating costs also increased significantly, up 16% on general inflation and to accommodate growth projects. Nonetheless, proportional EBITDA increased 29% to AUD 2.4 billion, a record for the firm. Statutory EBITDA increased 25% to AUD 2.1 billion. Free cash flow per security increased 40% to AUD 0.55, falling just short of distributions per security of AUD 0.58. Fiscal 2024 DPS guidance is for AUD 0.62, again exceeding our free cash flow estimates by a few cents.