Amotiv Lacks Sufficient Brand Power to Warrant an Economic Moat
We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to return, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence, with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently more than 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 12 years.
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