Company Reports

Amotiv's underlying EBITA was AUD 195 million, about 2% higher than last year. Steady growth in maintenance-heavy categories and strong offshore growth in lighting were offset by lower margins in 4WD and trailering. The firm guided to "modest" revenue and EBITA growth next year. Shares fell 15%.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to return, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence, with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently more than 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 12 years.

Amotiv's discretionary categories, such as 4WD accessories and lighting in Australia, have been weak, while maintenance-related categories, like oil filters, remain resilient. The company still expects revenue growth in fiscal 2026 with underlying EBITA of approximately AUD 195 million.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to resume, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 11 years.

Amotiv reported interim 2026 underlying EBITA of AUD 98 million, 1% higher than last year. Revenue growth of about 3% was offset by input cost inflation, particularly in the 4WD accessories business. Full-year EBITA guidance is unchanged at about AUD 195 million.

Amotiv's first-quarter revenue is up about 3%, year on year. Without further detail, the company noted earnings are in line with company expectations. No change was made to fiscal 2026 guidance for underlying EBITA of about AUD 195 million, 2% above last year.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to continue, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 11 years.

Amotiv's fiscal 2025 underlying EBITA fell 1% year on year to AUD 192 million. The repair-focused powertrain and undercar segment grew earnings by over 6%, offsetting 5% declines in the four-wheel drive accessories and lighting businesses.

New car sales in Australia are declining. The latest data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries has calendar year-to-date new car volumes in Australia about 5% below last year. This is a sharp deceleration from May 2024, when year-to-date new car sales were up about 12%.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to continue, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 11 years.

Previously expecting growth, Amotiv now expects a marginal decline in fiscal 2025 underlying EBITA. The downgrade is predominantly due to weakness in lighting, power, and electrical demand. To a lesser extent, 4WD accessories demand is weak amid lower new vehicle sales in Australia and New Zealand.

Amotiv's interim 2025 underlying EBITA of AUD 97 million is down 1% year over year. Earnings declines in the more discretionary 4WD accessories and lighting businesses were offset by growth in the repair-focused powertrain and undercar segment.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to continue, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 11 years.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to continue, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 12 years.

Amotiv's first-quarter fiscal 2024 revenue is up about 4% compared with the prior corresponding period. The company expects "further growth" in revenue and underlying operating earnings in fiscal 2025, skewed slightly to the second half.

Amotiv’s fiscal 2024 underlying net profit rose 5% to AUD 103 million, meeting our forecast. All segments grew earnings. Maintenance-related businesses were resilient, while improved new vehicle sales supported more cyclical lines like 4WD accessories. We make only minor changes to our forecasts, and our AUD 112 million net profit forecast for fiscal 2025 is intact. We raise our fair value estimate by 4% to AUD 12.50 per share, principally due to time value of money.

We expect Amotiv's strong earnings growth to continue, underpinned by its automotive business. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, Amotiv's aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 12 years.

With the divestment of Davey, a largely unrelated water pumps business, GUD is now an automotive pure play—and likely to change its name to Amotiv to reflect this. With this comes a new divisional structure, announced on its investor day. Previously split between the core automotive businesses and the acquired APG business, GUD will report fiscal 2024 results for three segments: 4WD accessories and trailering—about 30% of earnings; lighting, power, and electrical —about 33% of earnings; and powertrain and undercar—about 37% of earnings. The firm also provided fiscal 2024 underlying EBITA guidance, not including Davey, of at least AUD 194 million. We make no change to our AUD 195 million forecast. Shares in GUD screen as slightly undervalued compared with our unchanged AUD 12 fair value estimate.

No-moat GUD’s first-half fiscal 2024 result showed a resilient automotive wear and tear business, while sales tied to new car sales improved strongly as new vehicle supply returned. Underlying EBIT before amortization rose 12% on the prior corresponding period, or PCP, to AUD 98 million. This lines up neatly with our unchanged fiscal 2024 forecast of AUD 195 million for the continuing businesses. However, we lower our statutory forecast by about 2% on losses from the now-divested Davey business where we expected a small profit. With the divestment of Davey, a largely unrelated water pumps business, GUD is now an automotive pure play.

We expect GUD Holdings' strong earnings growth to continue, underpinned by the core automotive segment. Compared with new vehicle sales, which can prove volatile, GUD Holdings' aftermarket spare parts business remains resilient. Automotive spare parts, required for routine maintenance and repair of vehicles, are less affected by changes in discretionary income and consumer confidence with demand broadly driven by the increasing pool of vehicles. We expect the number of registered vehicles to continue growing at a low-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. We estimate there are currently about 20 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of around 12 years.